FLASH
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The Battle for Hormuz Could Change the Balance in the Middle East...
The United States has intensified its attacks on Iran, striking targets further north and closer to the capital, Tehran. At the same time, Iran continues attacks against Washington's allies in the region and promises "resistance to the end."
Tensions have risen sharply in recent days as the US and Iran continue to trade attacks. The memorandum of understanding has been put on hold, with fears growing that war could resume.
The US strikes have reached areas around the Iranian capital, showing that Washington's range of targets is expanding. From the statements of US President Donald Trump, who declared the US the "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz and warned of imposing a 20% tariff on all cargo, it became clear that Washington is considering the possibility of forcibly opening the strait.
However, military analysts told the Wall Street Journal that to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would need more troops, months of effort, and face even greater risks.
Earlier this week, Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open and under U.S. control. However, by Wednesday, as the U.S. and Iran battled over this vital sea corridor, ship-tracking company Kpler reported that maritime traffic had decreased as the risk to ships attempting to pass through had increased.
This development confirmed what many analysts and former military personnel have long supported in the US: securing the Strait of Hormuz and convincing shipping companies that passage is safe without Iranian consent would likely require either a US naval escort mission with significant risks or a large and costly ground operation in southern Iran. Both options require the commitment of large numbers of US military forces.
For its part, Iran, which knows that its strongest negotiating card and main means of projecting power in the region is control over the Strait of Hormuz, has ordered the Houthi rebels in Yemen to be ready to block the oil transportation route through the Red Sea.
The blockade would be imposed if the United States attacks Iran's energy infrastructure, three sources told Reuters. Such a development would create even greater pressure on global energy supply markets.
The idea has been discussed within the Iranian leadership and the message has been conveyed to the Houthi rebels, according to two senior Iranian sources and a regional source cited by Reuters. The sources added that the Houthis, who are backed and financed by Iran, were recently informed of Tehran's request.
However, it is not clear whether Tehran's message was conveyed after Trump threatened to strike Iran's energy infrastructure. A source close to the Houthis said the group has completed preparations for attacks on naval targets. According to the same source, the Houthis have deployed missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, in Yemen's mountainous areas overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden, and are awaiting orders to launch operations.
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