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If a war breaks out in the Balkans and NATO intervenes, it would distract the alliance from Ukraine and strengthen Russian military positions there...
Russia is trying to provoke conflicts in the Western Balkans to use them as leverage against the West and to obtain concessions on Ukraine, using psychological and informational tools, says an analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
"Since the launch of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia's involvement in Eastern Europe has attracted greater attention. Unlike the brutal territorial invasion and destruction seen in Ukraine, Russia's methods in Southeast Europe are more subtle, using information techniques and psychological warfare instead of traditional military power," the analysis states.
Moscow has created a strong alliance with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, aiming to destabilize the region. Similarly, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbian separatist leader Milorad Dodik has been actively used for the same purpose, the FPRI analysis says.
“Russia has several goals for intervening in the Western Balkans. First, if Russia can cause chaos on the southeastern edge of Europe, it could arguably help to subvert or defuse any such conflict. This gives Russia leverage over the West: if Russia’s cooperation is essential for mediating conflicts in the Balkans, Putin could demand concessions from NATO, perhaps on Ukraine, in exchange for easing tensions in the Balkans,” the report says.
Meanwhile, a potential conflict in the Balkans would heighten tensions within NATO, which is already divided over possible responses to the Russian war in Ukraine.
"Another conflict, even closer to the heart of Europe, would make cooperation within NATO even more challenging, especially if it included Kosovo, given that some NATO countries do not recognize Kosovo's independence," the report said.
On the other hand, Russia is using the Western Balkans to justify its appetites for Ukrainian territory. According to FPRI, Moscow claims that if NATO was right to protect Kosovo from Serbia, then Moscow should protect Russians in Crimea and the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
"This diplomatic stance may be absurd, given that Russia has never recognized Kosovo's independence. But it helps the Kremlin muddy the waters around its illegal invasion of Ukraine," FPRI noted.
"Instability in the Western Balkans presents Russia with a win-win scenario. If the status quo is prolonged, NATO and the European Union are unable to stop the chaos and instability and appear powerless. If they are forced to bring Russia to the negotiating table, Putin will use the region for concessions elsewhere," she added.
If a war breaks out in the Balkans and NATO intervenes, it would distract the alliance from Ukraine and strengthen Russian military positions there.
In the Western Balkans, Russia uses the information space to manipulate people. In Serbia, the Russian state news agencies Sputnik and RT are allowed to operate, and local media have collected information from them.
"These include the outright lie that Ukraine attacked Russia in 2022, as well as conspiracy theories about US-run "biolabs" in Serbia. Russia also operates through social media platforms, particularly Telegram," the analysis says.
Moscow's efforts are already bearing fruit in the Western Balkans. Serbia has moved troops to Kosovo's borders several times, raising fears of a possible war.
In Bosnia, Dodik has made more decisive moves to secede from the country, which includes two autonomous entities: the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Republika Srpska.
"Russian political war efforts in the Balkans are not limited to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Serbia. Montenegro represents the weakest and most vulnerable part of NATO, while Moscow seeks to project influence in the Adriatic Sea," the analysis adds.
FPRI urged the West to take more decisive measures to combat Russian methods in the Balkans, including stricter sanctions and combating disinformation spread by the Kremlin. / Pamphlet adapted from Intellnews/
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