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Polls show significant public dissatisfaction and declining approval ratings for Trump on key issues such as immigration, the economy and inflation, even as macroeconomic indicators remain relatively strong...
Scottish historian Niall Ferguson, a professor at Stanford University, analyzes in "The Free Press" a recurring pattern in American politics, known as the "sixth year syndrome": the second year of a second presidential term, when the president's power typically weakens, popularity declines and the ruling party loses ground in the midterm elections.
According to Ferguson, this pattern occurs almost without exception. Presidents at this stage face domestic agenda blockage, public fatigue, scandals, foreign policy crises, or unforeseen events. As a rule, the president's party loses the midterm elections and the president himself is seen as politically weakened for the remainder of his term.
Ferguson argues that even Donald Trump, despite his ability to dominate the international scene and impose his own negotiating style, risks becoming the next victim of this cycle. A second term, he points out, is always a second term, regardless of whether it is consecutive or not.
The historian first focuses on domestic tensions, mentioning the reactions to the deportation policy. According to him, immigration has long been one of Trump's strongest political points and played a key role in his re-election. The rapid closure of the southern border gave weight to the slogan "promises kept". However, mass deportations and the use of harsh methods have proven less popular, especially when accompanied by negative media coverage.
Ferguson points out that polls show significant public discontent and declining approval ratings for Trump on key issues such as immigration, the economy and inflation, even as macroeconomic indicators remain relatively strong. For the historian, this shows that the economy, while important, does not guarantee political protection.
In his analysis, Ferguson places Trump on a historical parallel with Richard Nixon. The two, he says, share a realistic and confrontational style, a distrust of the mainstream media, and a tendency to challenge allies. Nixon's second term, Ferguson recalls, ended disastrously with the Watergate scandal, despite his landslide victory in the 1972 election. Economic factors, rising inflation, and financial market crises further worsened the situation, leading to the collapse of his presidency.
However, Ferguson points out that American history also knows one important exception to the “sixth year syndrome”: Bill Clinton. In 1998, Clinton faced serious personal scandals and impeachment proceedings that at first glance seemed to destroy him politically. But the opposite happened. The American economy was very strong, financial markets were growing, and unemployment was falling. Equally important, according to Ferguson, was the fact that Republicans went too far in their attempt to unseat Clinton, creating fatigue and negative public reaction.
As a result, Clinton not only survived politically, but ended the year with a higher approval rating than at the beginning of her second term, while Republicans lost seats in Congress.
The central question Ferguson poses is whether Donald Trump can follow Clinton's example rather than Nixon's. He notes that Trump, like Clinton, does not profit from public moral illusions but from perceptions of efficiency and economy. An overly aggressive campaign by opponents, he argues, could backfire.
The conclusion of the analysis is cautious and without speculation: the “sixth year syndrome” has struck most two-term American presidents. A strong economy is a necessary but not sufficient condition to avoid political losses. Whether Trump will manage to be an exception will depend not only on economic indicators, but also on the mistakes or restraint of his political opponents. / Pamphlet
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