FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
For Russia's close ally, Belarus, the question now arises; What will happen to part of the Wagner militia, who were sent there after the failure of the rebellion initiated by Prigozhin? It is about 4,000 to 5,000 armed militiamen, known for their brutal style of warfare, who are being used as instructors in Belarus.
How the notorious gang leader Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitrij Utkin likely died in a plane crash en route from Moscow to St Petersburg is still unclear. A few days after the disaster there is still no clarity, at a time when almost no one believes in an accident. Although Kremlin spokesman Dmitrij Peskov dismissed speculation about a Kremlin-ordered assassination as "lies."
For Russia's close ally, Belarus, the question now arises; What will happen to part of the Wagner militia, who were sent there after the failure of the rebellion initiated by Prigozhin? It is about 4,000 to 5,000 armed militiamen, known for their brutal style of warfare, who are being used as instructors in Belarus.
A part may stay in Belarus
The history of Prigozhin's Wagner private army so far as we knew it is over, says Alexander Friedman, historian of Eastern Europe at the University of Düsseldorf. "Wagner fighters will remain in Africa or Belarus, however." The troupe will continue to exist, "perhaps under a different name. But it will come under the authority of the Ministry of Defense." The Belarusian ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, would gladly keep some of the fighters and integrate them into his troops, Friedmann says. "He would have funds for 3,000 fighters, but Moscow has the final say."
But a complete withdrawal of troops from Belarus is not in Russia's interest. This would reduce tensions on the border with Poland and Lithuania, where soldiers are stationed, which are perceived as a threat in EU countries. But a large part of them will be sent to Russia or Africa, the researcher believes.
Lukashenko no interest in keeping them?
Aleksander Klaskovskij, analyst at the Belarusian independent project, "Pisirk", thinks otherwise. Lukashenko has no interest in a Wagner troupe in Belarus. The soldiers are headless and the fate of the strong fighting force with political ambitions is in doubt. Both Putin and Lukashenko have an interest in keeping this troop as small as possible. Also for another reason. The EU and NATO would completely block the border with Belarus, which would greatly worsen relations with the European neighbors. This too is "inappropriate" for Lukashenko, says Klaskovskij.
According to Valerij Sahashtshik, a member of the party of the politician living in exile, Svtelana Tihanovskaya, nothing good awaits this troupe. He also believes that part of the soldiers will stay in Belarus. "Because Russia is interested in provocations on the borders with the EU and acts of sabotage in Ukraine." But the issue of financing remains one of the most important.
The expulsion to Belarus has been a temporary solution to the "Wagner problem of the Russian leadership", adds Grigorij Nishkov, of the Finnish Institute of International Relations. It makes "neither tactical nor strategic sense to keep them in Belarus". According to Nishkov, this troop will leave Belarus by the end of the year.
Aleksander Klaskovskij also believes this. This troop once rose against Putin, and he no longer trusts the militias. Therefore they will surely be dispersed. "Some will return to civilian life, others will go to Africa."/DW
Lini një Përgjigje