FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
Instead of full membership, Tirana and Belgrade are designing a model that guarantees them access to the European market, but shields them from Brussels' democratic accountability. This pragmatic symbiosis risks turning Balkan citizens into second-class Europeans, simply to preserve the power of their leaders...
While global attention remains fixated on developments in Iran, subtle but strategically significant movements are taking place in the Balkans. Two are the main developments. First, the Trump administration is abandoning the principle of “state-building,” preferring to let local leaders make sovereign decisions about their own fate.
Second, Albania and Serbia seem to have voluntarily chosen a half-hearted integration into Europe, in the hope that the EU will copy the American approach of non-intervention. The second development clearly illustrates the danger of the first proposal: it all depends on who these “wandering leaders” are.
If they are politicians who fear accountability, they will choose a path that eliminates external control over their power.
A "Swiss-style" model, but without its democracy
What Albania's Prime Minister, Edi Rama, and Serbia's President, Aleksandar Vučić, are aiming for is rapid access to the Common Market and the Schengen area, giving up the right of veto and other privileges enjoyed by full EU members.
This model would be comparable to the EU agreements with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland. However, for these countries this model works because they meet the membership requirements, but choose political non-involvement for sovereign reasons. Their reasons do not include protection from accountability, which is the pillar of the state in all these countries. In the case of the Rama-Vučić duo, this model is required precisely as a shield against democratic control.
A strange partnership
It is paradoxical that Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama is cooperating so closely with Serbian President Vučić at this very moment. Serbia has fallen behind in the integration race. Since his election on a pro-EU platform in 2017, Vučić has done nothing to preserve Serbia's advantage.
Even EU-skeptical politicians in Montenegro have outpaced Belgrade on reforms. Vučić has focused on strengthening security ties with Russia and economic expansion towards China, refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Domestically, he has “vaporized” the liberal opposition, independent media, and the rule of law, suppressing civic protests against violence and corruption. Freedom House ranks Serbia as a “partly free” country, with a steady downward trend.
Albania, on the other hand, has moved forward in the race for membership, although Rama has also partially weakened the opposition there. Although Albania is ranked as "partly free", it has marked progressive growth.
The question to ask is: why would Rama give up this key position in exchange for a half-hearted integration alongside Vučić? Is he worried that the EU's continued focus on accountability will penalize him as well?
The trap of "native will"
The Americans are not wrong when they demand that the local people decide their own fate. But the outcome depends on who is asked. If you ask Vučić and Rama, they prefer the lack of responsibility to the joint table in Brussels.
I am convinced that the protesting students in Belgrade or the serious Europeanists in Tirana would not support this proposal. The occasion for the Trump administration to declare its “new” approach was the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords.
They brought peace to Bosnia, but are often criticized for being imposed. The “dirty secret” is that the Americans at Dayton imposed what the warring leaders (“the local people”) said they would
to accept: a constitution that guaranteed the power of ethnic nationalists.
This is the danger again today: a pragmatism that empowers autocrats at the expense of democratic values. Trump is not a leader who values democracy if it does not guarantee his victory or the implementation of his orders.
The Balkans deserve real membership in the bloc
Serbia and Albania deserve better. So do Bosnia, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. They should insist on the “real thing”: EU membership, earned by fulfilling all the requirements of the Acquis communautaire and the Copenhagen criteria.
The window of opportunity is closing in. Iceland is considering a referendum on membership, and Ukraine could be ready long before 2030. When this 'political window' opens, I hope that the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing to become full members, and not part of a bargain for half-hearted integration into the EU.
Note: Daniel Serwer, professor of Conflict Management Practice and director of Conflict Management Programs at the Johns Hopkins School of International Affairs (SAIS).
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