FLASH
Shkruar nga Mihael Martens
When the political situation in the world changes in favor of Serbia - for example, with the loss of Ukraine or with the victory of Donald Trump in the elections - the moment may come to recover the north of Kosovo...
When it was confirmed in January that the US would deliver 246 Javelin anti-tank missiles to Kosovo, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic promised record investments in the military.
It has been announced the procurement of howitzers, the increase of anti-air defense against drones, the purchase of helicopters and already for this year he promised the army a thousand drones.
When the statistics-loving Serbian president starts juggling numbers, it's wise to take his statements with caution, because reality doesn't always follow the announcements.
But Vučić is not talking about the military industry for nothing - the Chinese FK-3 systems and other weapons have been purchased. According to the Stockholm institute SIPRI, last year Serbia invested more money in the military than the other five countries of the Western Balkans combined.
And he is arming himself rhetorically. We recall that Vucic expressed his admiration when Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, over which it had been in dispute with Armenia for decades.
Think about Kosovo
Vucic, the most powerful politician in Belgrade since Tito's time, explained how Azerbaijan did everything right - for years it strengthened the economy, the military, especially the special forces, and waited patiently for geopolitical circumstances to change.
It was clear to his audience what he really meant. Nationalists have been talking openly about this for a long time. When the political situation in the world changes in favor of Serbia - for example, with the loss of Ukraine or with the victory of Donald Trump in the elections - the moment may come, they say, to retake the north of Kosovo, which is inhabited by Serbs , through military actions.
Katarina Gjokiin, a military expert from the SIPRI Institute, says that there is no great risk of a conventional conflict between Serbia and Kosovo as long as NATO troops are stationed in Kosovo. In addition, she says, Serbia is economically dependent on the EU, so it cannot afford sanctions.
A tank invasion would be a "potentially disastrous venture for Serbia, if Kosovo gets the Javelins in time," which, as was shown in Ukraine, effectively destroy tanks.
A US source says that Pristina can wait years for these anti-tank missiles because "in due time" all that can be delivered to Ukraine.
Special forces attack?
Experts and "Western military attachés" do not believe in a tank invasion in the Balkans anyway. "In Pristina, they probably consider attacks by paramilitary or illegal structures, which are supported by Belgrade, as a more possible and real threat. We really saw this in 2023", says Katarina Gjokič, referring to the clash in Banjska.
Is this the reason why Vučić often talks about the importance of special units for Serbia?
Gjokič also said that the mood of the Serbs in the north of Kosovo should be taken into account - if they think that the Albanians are a threat to them, then the resistance of the local population is also possible. The Serbian special units would certainly have the support of the residents in the north of Kosovo.
But even the improvement of the Serbian special forces suffers from a lack of youth. Vučić announced the admission of five thousand people to the special units, but a FAZ source, a "trained military observer from Belgrade", says: "According to our knowledge, a low three-digit number of people were registered. And many of them will not to be suitable".
Serbia is massively arming Ukraine
Vucic has managed to be "at the mercy of Washington through the comprehensive shipment of ammunition reaching Ukraine through targeted diversions."
Of course, Vučić publicly denies this, partly because of the pro-Russian sentiment in Serbia that his media apparatus has been systematically growing for years. But everyone knows the behind the scenes.
Of particular note is the 122 millimeter rocket produced by the Serbian company Edepro, which has a range of about 40 kilometers - twice that of most rockets of that caliber. It is particularly suitable for the Ukrainians because the missile can be launched from the Grad launcher they have.
"This is the range with which Ukraine overcomes the enemy. This gives it great advantages", says an unidentified military expert for FAZ.
A well-connected source in Belgrade also proudly says that Serbian artillery ammunition is more accurate than Bulgarian ammunition, which is also supplied to Ukraine. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from " Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung ".
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