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Shkruar nga Tony Barber
Ukraine, the Balkans and the future of EU enlargement...
According to the official line in Brussels, the EU's planned enlargement to Eastern and Southeastern Europe is making steady progress, despite occasional bumps along the way. There is even talk that one of the 10 candidate countries, Montenegro, will join the 27-nation bloc before the end of the 2030s.
Is this look too sanguine? Is the enlargement project more at risk than the EU is letting on?
There are three main elements of the picture: the impact of world events on the EU; trends in specific EU countries; and developments in candidate countries.
But how are things? After stagnating for nearly a decade following Croatia's entry in 2013, enlargement gained new momentum in 2022 as the EU joined in responding to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Six Balkan countries already await integration, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, while the EU added Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Turkey is also a candidate for membership, although more on paper than in reality.
However, a certain tension has always characterized the EU enlargement process.
On the one hand, EU governments see a strong geopolitical case for expanding the bloc. On the other hand, they do not want to expand at all costs: candidate countries are supposed to meet different criteria, especially regarding democracy, the rule of law and overcoming historical differences with existing EU member states.
Russia and Trump
Events beyond the EU are not necessarily working in favor of enlargement. The two most important are Russia's advances in its war against Ukraine and the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House for a second term.
We cannot predict with certainty the policies of the incoming Trump administration on the war in Ukraine. But Trump and his allies have said they want a quick end to the fighting.
Such a step would leave Russia in control of about a fifth of Ukraine's territory. There would be no reason to expect Moscow to relax its opposition to Ukraine's entry into Western alliance structures – above all NATO, but also the EU, whose aspirations for a stronger defense profile and security, the Kremlin despises them, but is nevertheless wary of them.
In theory, the EU could proceed with Ukraine's membership talks, but it would be risky business if the US and its allies did not provide the truncated Ukrainian de facto state with strong security guarantees.
USA, EU and the Balkans
The difficulties extend beyond Ukraine to the Balkans. In an analysis for the European Council on Foreign Relations, Adnan Ćerimagić and Majda Ruge explain that the first Trump administration played a strange, even divisive role in the Balkans: playing with territory swaps as a way to resolve the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo.
Such an initiative risks destabilizing other regions of the Balkans, such as Bosnia and North Macedonia, raising doubts about the stability of the current state borders.
Indeed, US and European policies towards Serbia have not exactly been helpful to the cause of EU enlargement even during the years of the Biden administration.
In essence, the US has maintained that Serbia's democratic shortcomings and refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia matter less than the fact that President Aleksandar Vucic has quietly provided support to the West, notably by sending arms to Ukraine .
As for the EU, it has shown more interest in Serbia's lithium deposits – the largest in Europe and crucial to the electric vehicle industry – than in pressuring Belgrade to meet standards to join the EU. the club. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Financial Times"
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