FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The euro is losing points at a steady pace in the exchange rate with the Lek.
According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the European currency was exchanged on Wednesday at 110.78 lek, down almost one point since the end of last week and almost three points from the maximum level of 113.43 lek reached after the local elections, on date 17 May.
After a quick but short-lived rally in the days following the election, the euro is now heading back to historic lows. The Euro touched the lowest value of all times in the exchange rate on May 11, when it was exchanged for ALL 110.63.
Market agents partly explained the strong decline in the first part of May with currency flows possibly related to the local elections.
However, even after the elections, the exchange rate is oriented towards the same values, which, according to experts, proves that the currency supply in the country remains high. An increase in foreign exchange flows in this period can be expected due to the approach of the tourist season and an increasing impact of tourism, especially that of weekends.
However, high inflows of currency and lek in strong positions are no longer a new trend in the foreign exchange market. According to exchange agents, since last year the market has been characterized by abundant foreign currency inflows and a weak demand for the European currency.
The Bank of Albania argues that the strengthening of the lek against the euro relies on the improvement, in real terms, in the balance of payments over the last few years. The increase in income from tourism, services and remittances has narrowed the current account deficit, while the high values of foreign direct investments have compensated and exceeded this deficit.
Such a situation has led to the continuous strengthening of the lek in the exchange rate against the euro, a strengthening that, starting last year, may have been prompted by a more restrictive nature of the monetary and fiscal policy in the country. Today, the lek is overvalued against the euro by 7.7% compared to the same period a year ago.
The strong exchange rate positions of the lek are unlikely to change in the short term. On the contrary, if historical data is to be believed, this strengthening is likely to continue more during the summer months, when tourism flows reach their peak.
Based on historical statistics, the euro reaches its lowest value of the summer season between the end of July and the beginning of August. Based on this trend, it is very likely that the fall of the euro against the lek this summer will set new historical records.
This situation will be favorable for all those economic agents who have income in Lek and expenses in Euro, such as importers of goods and services, or borrowers in the European currency.
On the other hand, the strong lek is expected to further test the exporting sectors of goods and services, as well as the beneficiaries of incoming foreign exchange flows, mainly families of immigrants, who receive remittances./Monitor
Lini një Përgjigje