FLASH
Shkruar nga Ylli Pata
So the opposition, not only has not advanced, but has shrunk year after year. What are the parts of this opposition fighting for today?
From 2013, until 2021, the Albanian opposition, namely PD and LSI sometimes openly and sometimes secretly played to overthrow Edi Rama. Of course, together with interest groups inside and outside the SP.
A game where Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta have invested a lot, even since the beginning of Edi Rama's government. We recall the case of the destruction of Bashar Al Assad's weapons arsenal, which Albania requested from the USA, and the fake protests that were raised by the "civil society" associated with the old political duo.
This goal was not simply a strategic objective of the Albanian opposition, in the sense of overthrowing Edi Rama through elections. No! As we have seen at this time, they have tried to overthrow him before every election; before the June 2017 elections, before the June 2019 elections.
In the 2021 elections, they did not have this option, as they used the final card, such as burning mandates and boycotting local elections.
In this duel, the opposition has been revealed, especially in the 2019 elections, which were in a way like a referendum on the 1998 Constitution. It was more or less understood who the electoral potential of the Albanian opposition was, which as the elections also showed of 2021 did not result in a majority, although it was massive enough and indicative to clearly show where and how much the political community that does not like Edi Rama's government is spread.
But what happened after the April 2021 elections? The partial elections of 2022 and then those of May 14, 2023 took place. Where did the opposition lose ground even in its strongholds? Here the situation is a bit more complicated. Because everything must be analyzed by the third political factor, or more clearly the former third political factor - LSI.
Which until 2009 managed to get a number of leftist votes, in 2005 it got 7 deputies and in 2009, deputies. In the 2009 elections, LSI was badly damaged by the current proportional regional system, but in reality lost a number of votes as a result of an internal struggle within the left. After Ilir Meta's alliance with Sali Berisha, LSI lost more than half of the leftist votes. It is enough to look at the minutes of the voting centers, of the areas that are known and identified where they move the vote. In the municipal elections of 2011 for the municipality of Tirana, the LSI managed to get a handful of leftist votes, which it treated as pragmatists, but it did not manage to get any large municipality where the DP had given it the candidate for mayor. Elbasan was the most important evidence, where the LSI candidate was a very popular name in the leftist community.
After 2011, LSI lost almost all or the vast majority of the left community, but still increased its votes. Because it entered as a kind of virus to the right part of the electorate. In the 2013 elections, LSI took quite a share of this electorate, while in the 2017 elections, it doubled it. In the 2021 elections, the entire electorate that had voted for LSI, actually not all but 80 percent, returned home.
The increase in the votes of Lulzim Basha's DP in the 2021 elections can only be read with the return of voters who had marked Ilir Meta's party for 2 pairs of votes. But the opposition in reality did not make any progress towards that nerve center which is considered the winning part, or the "gray electorate".
It is enough to look at the 11 electoral units of Tirana. PD has only taken steps backwards, and this is a political development, even though the media halo wants to find clientelistic reasons. It is about over 60,000 votes in the entire Tirana district, where any comment would be redundant.
So the opposition, not only has not advanced, but has shrunk year after year. What are the parts of this opposition fighting for today?
If this opposition were united, with a clear program, a new leader, a modern team, or even close relations with allies, it is not excluded that it will endanger the majority, if it fights hard; here is victory, here is death!
But with this configuration, it's about survival. Lulzim Basha's DP seeks the votes of the Democrats who did not go for Berisha on May 14, which are many. On May 14, PD without Lulzim Basha as the leader received over 100,000 votes at the national level, but the chances are that this community will triple at least every other day. Why? Because those who did not vote for PD but boycotted Sali Berisha, can return to Lulzim Basha. Yes, this is in theory. After all, if they take for example Shkodra or Tropoja, where the socialist mayors are walking without a problem with the right-wing community, we are dealing with a new political development. which if analyzed, pictures a whole new political reality.
Lini një Përgjigje