FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Elections to the European Parliament are always accompanied by the question of who will lead Europe, but they are nothing more than 27 parallel elections, as each country decides for itself how to elect representatives in Strasbourg.
European elections have historically been second-rate elections, but with an impact on internal political developments, as evidenced in France with the calling of early parliamentary elections by President Macron. European elections are becoming more and more political, driven by internal agendas rather than a vision for Europe. Therefore, analyzing the results is a complex process.
Clearly the pendulum has swung to the right. The political weight of the center-right and far-right forces has increased. However, the contraction of the political parties grouped around the center is small, from 59% to 56% of the seats in the European Parliament, compared to the last elections.
The European People's Party not only came out first, consolidating the established tradition since 1999, but also experienced growth. The European People's Party has grown in numbers and in influence in most EU member states, which makes it an irreplaceable political factor in the formation of new EU institutions. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats came second, but the hemorrhage of its votes has not stopped.
The Liberals were significantly reduced, due to the heavy defeat suffered by President Macron's party in France. Again, the aforementioned political groupings will have a leading majority in the European Parliament. The 2019 elections were marked by the triumph of the Greens, which pushed the EU towards the adoption of the Green Agenda. In these elections, the Greens were significantly reduced, ranking as the second smallest group in the European Parliament.
The fact that the three reports that were requested by the EU on the eve of the renewal of the European institutions stands out: (i) on the preparation in the field of defense, drawn up by the former Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö; (ii) for the internal market, drafted by the former Italian Prime Minister, Enrico Letta; (iii) for promoting competitiveness, drafted by the former Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi; the environment does not appear as an issue. It is clear that we will have a Europe less focused on meeting the objectives of the Green Agenda.
Breaking the 'sanitary cord'
The extreme right gained ground. The group of Conservatives and Reformists has grown, as a result of the success of the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's party in the elections, but also of similar parties in Poland, Spain and Sweden. Even further to their right, the political grouping Identity and Democracy increased, as a result of the results of Marine Le Pen's party in France and the Freedom Party in Austria. Growth, which would be more substantial if this grouping had not kicked out the Alternative for Germany Party a few weeks ago, which brought Chancellor Scholz's Social Democrats to third place. It is worth noting that the far-right parties scored important victories in states where they never had the opportunity to exercise power, mainly in France and Germany.
In states that have been damaged by populist governments, traditional parties achieved good results. Although in every European election there has been talk of a "sanitary cordon" against far-right parties, it must be admitted that none of these subjects have violent rhetoric. Ursula von der Leyen herself, in the Maastricht debate that took place between the candidates for president of the European Commission, broke the concept of the "sanitary cordon", leaving open the possibility of cooperation with these political groups on the condition that they respect the European vocation, the principles of the rule of law, and the EU's current stance towards Russian aggression in Ukraine.
If we take the above-mentioned far-right groups together and add here the votes of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán's party, they are ranked second, after the European People's Party, leaving the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in third place. in the European Parliament. The potential of this cooperation exists even though it is not easy. Although the conglomerate of the extreme right agrees with the need for a "war from within" against the "Brussels elite", there are strong differences between them in foreign policy and especially in their attitudes towards Russia.
The unknowns of the new political leadership
The first challenge after the constitution of the European Parliament concerns the division of important European positions. The Socialists and Democrats mandated German Chancellor Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez, while the European People's Party is expected to mandate Polish Prime Minister Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, to find an acceptable solution for the division of European responsibilities. Over time, the EU's ability to translate the election result into new institutions and a new political leadership has become more difficult.
Më parë, ishte e lehtë të identifikohej se kush do të mund të udhëhiqte Komisionin Europian, Parlamentin Europian apo pozicionet kyçe si Banka Qendrore Europiane. Tani çdo gjë është më e komplikuar. E kemi parë këtë në vitin 2019, teksa udhëheqësve europianë iu deshën disa javë që të përcaktonin presidentin e Komisionit Europian. Ndoshta tani do të nevojitet më shumë kohë për të arritur një kompromis politik, për shkak të zgjedhjeve të parakohshme në Francë, të thirrura nga presidenti Macron. Formatit të koalicionit të deritanishëm mes Partive Popullore Europiane, Aleancës Progresiste të Socialistëve dhe Demokratëve dhe Liberalëve, që siguron mbështetje ndaj Komisionit Europian, mund t’i bashkëngjiten edhe të gjelbërit, hapësira e negociimit e të cilëve është ngushtuar, për shkak të rezultatit të dobët zgjedhor.
Mirëpo mund të krijohen edhe “shumica parlamentare fleksibël”, falë bashkëpunimit të mundshëm mes Partive Popullore Europiane me Konservatorët dhe Reformistët. Megjithëse partitë e tjera tradicionale e kanë përjashtuar mundësinë e bashkëpunimit me këtë grupim, Giorgia Meloni, si simboli i Konservatorëve dhe Reformistëve dhe si kryeministrja e vendit të tretë për nga pesha e madhësia në BE, pritet të luaj një rol të rëndësishëm në konstituimin e institucioneve europiane. Aq më tepër që udhëheqësit e dy vendeve kryesore të BE-së, Gjermanisë dhe Francës pësuan disfatë zgjedhore.
Një tjetër e panjohur e këtyre zgjedhjeve janë edhe 100 deputetët, një numër i lartë krahasuar me parlamentin e kaluar, që nuk janë të lidhur me grupimet ekzistuese politike në Parlamentin Europian. Praktika e deritanishme tregon se kjo tipologji deputetësh nuk mund të trajtohet si një e tërë. Gjithsesi, çdo grupim politik priret të negociojë me to me qëllim shtimin e radhëve, pasi dihet se përkatësia e deputetëve në grupime politike ka përparësi të padiskutueshme, përsa i përket aksesit të plotë në drejtimin e strukturave parlamentare.
Një BE më e rreptë me emigracionin, më pak e gjelbër
Për pesë vitet që vijnë, në rrafshin e drejtimit politik, ka të ngjarë që animi djathtas i Parlamentit Europian do ta bëjë BE-në edhe më të rreptë në çështjet e migracionit. Politika e tanishme e BE-së për emigracionin është ndikuar nga e djathta për më shumë se një dekadë. Ideja për të siguruar kufijtë, për ta shtrirë më tej sigurinë e Europës duke u dhënë vendeve fqinje fonde (Turqisë, Libisë, Tunizisë), është me të vërtetë një qasje që vjen prej asaj politike. Pra, nga njëra anë e djathta, dhe e djathta ekstreme, kanë formësuar agjendën politike të BE-së, dhe nga ana tjetër, kjo prirje do të theksohet, për shkak të rezultateve zgjedhore.
Also, the EU is expected to be oriented towards an agenda that will be more brown than green, focused on industrial policies in the field of defense. So we can have a renewal of all the industrial priorities of Europe. However, the difference between, on the one hand, the prioritization of expenditures for national defense policies and, on the other hand, the financing for the reorganization of the European economy and for the common European defense should be underlined. An EU influenced by the extreme right will struggle more to find common ground on securing funding for common defence. An EU that is more "sovereignty" and less green would hardly want to finance a European industrial policy, even if this is what is needed to boost the EU's competitiveness in the energy and digital transition, let alone to make any progress on the agricultural policy reforms needed to achieve environmental protection goals and advance the 36-nation enlargement process.
Will the enlargement process progress?
EU enlargement can progress by considering it as the flip side of its internal decline, but also as an opportunity to undertake deep institutional reforms. In other words, an EU that is organized in the form of concentric circles, expanding and deepening simultaneously for different policies, which would facilitate the decision-making process. However, an EU with nuances or what is worse with illiberal representation identified even in key positions, would not have the political will and credibility to talk about the rule of law, neither with the candidate states for EU membership nor in the international arena.
The US elections and the future of Europe
The European elections ended without giving an answer to the question of who will lead Europe. Perhaps the presidential elections in the USA will be more decisive for the future of Europe than the elections for the European Parliament. This happens because of divisions within Europe. The defining line in the EU is not necessarily between right and left, or between north and south, but between countries that demand more autonomy, Europe's sovereign autonomy, and countries that have never believed in this autonomy. In this context, the presidential elections in the USA, in one way or another, will also affect the course of the EU in relation to the European integration process, the security architecture of Ukraine, which suffers the consequences of Russian aggression in Europe, and the cooperation with NATO.
*The analysis is a publication of the "Friedrich Ebert" Foundation
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