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With or without Trump, Britain and Europe must consider all options. Putin responds only to force. A no-fly zone over Ukraine or the deployment of NATO troops on the ground could hinder the Russian military advance westward…
It should be clear to everyone that Vladimir Putin has no interest in peace, something British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated recently at the “Coalition of the Willing” summit, where leaders discussed how to implement a ceasefire.
The prime minister said: “If Putin is really serious about peace, then the solution is very simple. He must stop his barbaric attacks on Ukraine and agree to a ceasefire.” But no such outcome seems possible.
Putin claims he is winning, so why would he stop the war right now, admitting failure after causing over 1 million deaths and injuries? The Russian president's demands that we address what he calls the "root causes" of the war are completely unacceptable.
He wants NATO to return to its 1997 borders, minus the small Baltic states, and for newly-joined Finland and Sweden to be expelled from the alliance. He wants the full integration of the occupied territories into the Russian federation and international recognition of the forcible annexation.
He also insists that there should be no NATO troops in Ukraine, and lest we forget his reasons - which he has told us for years - for the illegal invasion. He essentially demands the full reintegration of all of Ukraine within the Russian federation and the disengagement of the US from Europe.
Putin has achieved almost all of the latter, and Western intelligence agencies estimate that he thinks he can achieve his main objective because Russian troops are advancing along most of the front line.
When I spoke yesterday with Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk, who were forced to retreat under heavy attack, the news was not even reported in the media. The number of killed and wounded in the ranks of the Russian army has exceeded 1 million, and Putin knows that he will face the “Russian mothers” as soon as the conflict is over.
So he wants to postpone this moment as long as possible. He is well aware that it was grieving mothers who forced the Kremlin to accept an ignominious defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1984, after the Russian army suffered 17,000 deaths.
He can cover this up while Russia is still at war, and many Russians cannot travel the world to discover the truth. But when they can, he will face big trouble.
With or without Trump at his side, Britain and Europe must consider all options. Putin responds only to force. A no-fly zone over Ukraine or the deployment of NATO troops on the ground could halt the Russian military advance westward.
Only when Putin sees that we are fully committed to this war will he seriously consider peace. Most of those in Europe who study Putin and Russia in any detail know that if he takes Kiev, he will not stop at Ukraine.
In fact, he wants to rebuild the Soviet Union and has said so many times. The US president's main interest seems to be in making money from the rare minerals that Ukraine possesses. However, Putin has also said that he can take them.
Trump knows that as European countries increase defense spending, there is a chance that American defense companies will clear out their warehouses. But the cancellation of several orders for F-35 fighter jets this week is more likely to prompt him to lean toward further defense of Ukraine than to Starmer and Macron’s calls for help.
If the divestment of US military equipment becomes common practice, Trump will have no small financial problem, a scenario he will want to stop as soon as possible. The “root causes” of the conflict, mentioned by Putin, are simply Kremlin code for NATO expansion.
Moscow cannot accept other countries having influence over its neighbors. But NATO expansion is driven by Moscow's domineering behavior toward its neighbors, not because NATO is inherently an expansionist alliance.
Putin does not want peace. He still aims for complete victory in Ukraine, and believes he can achieve it. We in the West, and especially in Europe, must understand the reality of Putin’s position and be prepared to act accordingly. Trump will not magically bring peace any time soon./ Pamphlet from the “Daily Telegraph”
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