FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
The latest survey I conducted for the show 'Voice of the Albanians' showed that a full 32% of those who voted for existing parties in the country are now disappointed with them. And these disappointed people of May 11 are ready to vote for a new party, if it is created. But...
Let's elaborate on this 'but'.
Of the 32 percent disappointed, 9 percent are disappointed socialists, 12 percent are disappointed "majors," and the remaining 11 percent are disappointed voters of existing minor parties.
Electoral history has shown that disappointed socialists in the winter usually return to the ballot boxes in the cold (for their party). Partially, even the disappointed "major" ones return to their fold. While the disappointed small parties, in the next elections either do not vote at all, or fish for some new party...
In the 35-year history of pluralism, only the LSI (as a party between the two major ones) has managed to become decisive in the balance of power. In 2005, it was decisive in the seizure of power by the DP (without becoming part of the government); in 2009 it was decisive in the seizure of power by the DP (by becoming part of the government); in 2013 it was decisive in the seizure of power by the SP (by becoming part of the government); and then, it slowly faded away…
In my 20 years of experience as a pollster in Albania, among the parties created as a challenge to the two major parties, Kreshnik Spahiu's Red and Black Alliance has captured the highest share in the polls (14%, in January 2013). But it was simply a media phenomenon, without capillary organization on the ground (as the LSI had at the time). And when the media sarcophagus closed on it in the month before the elections, the Red and Black Alliance ended up with only 1%...
These new parties that recently entered the Assembly constitute a novelty, compared to many of their predecessors. But in the last survey, they were found to be almost statistically extinct. Which shows that they were simply a media reality, but not an electoral one on the ground.
In order for a new, disillusioned party to lure the aforementioned 32 percent to the ballot box, a well-organized group (not just an individual) must campaign today, both in the media and on the ground. Because they must convince those who have voted for the big parties until yesterday that this new party will truly be able to challenge the old parties with a vision, a program, and an organization on the ground.
From what is said to what is done, there is a whole sea separating us – popular wisdom teaches us…
Ky eshte zari i Rames! Sipas tij do fitoje prape kerma e panginjur qe eshte ne pushtet