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The number of possible opponents for Germany in the first knockout round has almost halved overnight. Scenario 446 is considered the most likely. However, Scotland also remains an option...
In just a few hours, the number of potential opponents for the German national football team has been reduced from 15 to eight teams. The German team will face a team that finished the group stage in third place in the first knockout round. This team could come from groups A, B, C, D or F.
A concrete possibility is Scotland. The Scottish team finished Group C in third place after a 0:3 (0:2) defeat to world record holders Brazil, and could be the opponent of the team led by Julian Nagelsmann in the 1/16 final stage. However, for this Scotland must remain among the eight best third countries. With only three points and a goal difference of 1:4, their position is considered quite precarious.
Other realistic alternatives are considered to be Australia and Paraguay, who will face off directly for second and third place in Group D on the night between Thursday and Friday (04:00).
In addition to these three most likely options, potential opponents also remain Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has already secured third place in Group B, South Korea as third in Group A, as well as the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden, which could close Group F in third place.
Germany's match in the round of 32 will take place on Monday (22:30) in Foxborough, near Boston.
Several teams that were still considered potential opponents before Thursday night's matches are now out of the running. Switzerland, Canada, South Africa, Brazil and Morocco have qualified directly for the knockout stage, while Qatar and the Czech Republic were eliminated after finishing fourth in their groups.
Current ranking of third-place teams
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B) – 3 matches / 5:6 goals / 4 points*
Sweden (Group F) – 2 matches / 6:6 goals / 3 points
Croatia (Group L) – 2 matches / 3:4 goals / 3 points
South Korea (Group A) – 3 matches / 2:3 goals / 3 points
Algeria (Group J) – 2 matches / 2:4 goals / 3 points
Paraguay (Group D) – 2 matches / 2:4 goals / 3 points
Scotland (Group C) – 3 matches / 1:4 goals / 3 points
Cape Verde (Group H) – 2 matches / 2:2 goals / 2 points
Belgium (Group G) – 2 matches / 1:1 goals / 2 points
DR Congo (Group K) – 2 matches / 1:2 goals / 1 point
Ecuador (Group E) – 2 matches / 0:1 goals / 1 point
Senegal (Group I) – 2 matches / 3:6 goals / 0 points
* Already qualified as one of the eight best third-place teams.
Who would be the opponent according to the current situation?
For the distribution of third-place teams in the round of 16 matches, FIFA's format foresees a total of 495 possible scenarios, many of which have already been eliminated. After the completion of Groups A, B and C, only 246 scenarios remain.
In terms of Germany's opponent, these scenarios break down as follows:
A3 (South Korea): 15 out of 246 scenarios
B3 (Bosnia and Herzegovina): 1 out of 246
C3 (Scotland): 96 out of 246
D3 (Paraguay or Australia): 107 out of 246
F3 (Netherlands, Japan or Sweden): 27 out of 246
According to the current standings, the third-place teams that would qualify are those from groups A, B, C, D, F, H, J and L. This is Scenario 446, according to which Germany would face the third-place team from Group D.
Currently, that team is Paraguay. The South Americans (3 points, goal difference 2:4) can overtake Australia in the match to be held in Santa Clara, but for this they definitely need a win. Australia (3 points, goal difference 2:2) needs a draw to maintain second place.
However, given that only three of the 12 groups have been completed, it is highly unlikely that Scenario 446 will remain unchanged.
Germany has already secured first place in the group after victories over Curaçao (7:1) and Ivory Coast (2:1). For this reason, the match against Ecuador on Thursday evening (22:00) is no longer important for the German team's ranking, but is very important for the opponent, who is still fighting to stay in the tournament.
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