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Germany will face Paraguay in the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup. According to the predictive model, the German national team enters the match as the clear favorite…
The German national football team has never had so little time to prepare for a knockout match. Less than three days before Monday's match (22:30 CET), it was confirmed that the opponent in the round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup will be Paraguay.
Paraguay finished third in Group D, behind the United States and Australia. The South American team, which failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, benefited from the tournament's new format, where the eight third-placed teams in their groups also advance to the knockout stage.
Paraguay secured qualification thanks to a 1-0 win over Turkey and a 0-0 draw with Australia, despite a heavy 1-4 loss to the USA in the opening match.
On the other hand, Germany, which was eliminated in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup, this time closed the group in first place with two wins and one loss, ensuring passage to the next stage.
The statistics make Germany the clear favourites. In the FIFA world rankings, Germany is ranked 12th, while Paraguay is 37th. The difference is also reflected in the average value of the players: the players managed by Julian Nagelsmann are valued at an average of 36.42 million euros each, while those of coach Gustavo Alfaro are valued at 5.91 million euros.
According to the FAZ prediction model, Germany has a 70.8 percent chance of winning within 90 minutes. Paraguay's chances of winning are 10.6 percent, while the probability of a draw is 18.6 percent.
Even if the match goes to extra time or a penalty shootout, the model considers Germany to be the strong favorite. Their probability of qualifying reaches 83.67 percent, while Paraguay's remains at 16.33 percent.
The forecast was compiled by Daniel Memmert, mathematician, professor and director of the Institute for Exercise Science and Sports Informatics, as well as Fabian Wunderlich, mathematician and researcher specializing in prediction models in sports.
Both researchers base their analysis on statistical models and objective data. According to them, predictions in football remain particularly difficult due to the large influence of chance on match outcomes. Their research also includes analysis of betting odds, player positioning data and information from social networks to improve the accuracy of predictive models.
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