FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
In 1987-1988, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, the US Navy organized Operation Earnest Will, escorting merchant ships in the Persian Gulf to protect them from Iranian attacks and naval mines...
The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most sensitive points of conflict between the United States and Iran, while the threat of blocking maritime traffic is directly affecting global energy markets.
Iran does not have the capacity to impose a full naval blockade in this strategic area, as its navy has been significantly weakened over the years. However, Tehran can use other means to threaten shipping, such as naval mines, anti-ship missiles, fast naval vessels and unmanned drones.
The threat of attacks on merchant ships alone has been enough to significantly increase maritime insurance costs and force some shipping companies to temporarily halt sailings in the area. This situation could lead to an increase in energy prices on international markets.
The potential consequences of this situation are expected to be felt most by countries that depend on oil imports, such as China, India, Japan and European economies. The United States is considered less exposed to this pressure due to its high domestic energy production.
According to an analysis published by The Free Press, a military operation could reopen the strait to maritime traffic, but this would not happen immediately and could require several weeks of preparation.
A similar situation occurred in 1987-1988, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. At that time, the US Navy organized Operation Earnest Will, escorting merchant ships in the Persian Gulf to protect them from attacks and naval mines.
Today the risks are greater because Iran may also use new technologies, such as aerial drones and unmanned naval vehicles that could be used for attacks against oil tankers.
If the United States decides to guarantee the passage of ships through the strait, the operation is expected to take place in two phases. The first phase will target Iranian targets that could be used to attack ships, such as drone depots, anti-ship missiles and command centers.
After the weakening of these capacities, the second phase could begin, which involves the escort of merchant ships by the US Navy during their passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The operation could last for a long period and will have significant costs, while developments in this area remain crucial for the stability of global energy markets and for the course of the conflict between the United States and Iran. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Corriere Della Sera"
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