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NATO defense ministers discussed aid to Ukraine and their defense capabilities on Thursday. But what happens if the US withdraws from Europe?
At the end of the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that there will be more aid for Ukraine in terms of air defense. The drone alliance was also established. Stoltenberg also promised 1 million drones for Ukraine.
But NATO has enough problems even now. There is currently very little ammunition for Ukraine, the war is deadlocked with many casualties and no prospect of a negotiated solution. Another problem - the temporary suspension of US military aid that Kiev urgently needs. "The last thing we need is a discussion about nuclear weapons," says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. He spoke outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, but his message was aimed at Berlin, saying it was "a complex discussion that should not even be started".
His coalition partner Christian Lindner from the FDP may feel affected by this statement, as well as his party colleague Katarina Barley, the leader of the SPD list for the European Parliament elections. In an interview, she said that she is open to discussing the European atomic bomb in the framework of the discussion about the European army.
Without American troops, the right power is missing
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also believes that opening the debate on new nuclear bombs is completely wrong. If anything has worked so far, Jens Stoltenberg said, it was nuclear deterrence. "We must not undermine their credibility," Stoltenberg said. Especially since the American nuclear shield for Europe is almost the only thing that has not yet been called into question in the strategic documents of the Trump camp.
From the point of view of political scientist Jane Puglierin, the Europeans face a completely different problem, and it is in the field of conventional defense. She sees the danger that the Americans will withdraw. The head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) refers to a "sleeping NATO". It is a document that caused a wave of reactions in Washington. "This has to do with the fact that Europe's conventional defense is borne only by Europeans," says Puglierin.
In case of disagreements with the Americans, the very backbone of European defense would be broken. American soldiers would be withdrawn from Europe and with them capabilities such as reconnaissance, airlift and rapid deployment of combat troops with large reserves of ammunition. Basically everything that "most European armies lack", says Puglierin.
Lack of coordination
The shortage must be eliminated by massive armament. With the start of the war in Ukraine, there was an unprecedented increase in defense spending in NATO member countries. According to NATO data, only in 2024 the expenses will reach 380 billion dollars, while 18 countries out of 31 that are members of the alliance will allocate at least two percent of the GDP for the army.
But money alone will not solve the problem, Puglierin fears. As long as national governments have ambitions to produce their own tanks, submarines and equipment, military cooperation will be difficult. "Coordinating the supply of European arms and ammunition is barely working," even as national defense budgets have increased, she believes. "National reflexes have priority", says Puglierin.
The US expects more support for Ukraine from the EU
European tank for all - it is still only a possible project for the future, not for the current state. At this point there is a huge gap that needs to be filled. US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith says she cannot predict when the US will approve $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine. "We know that our friends in Ukraine need urgent help," she said in an interview for the ARD studio in Brussels. She clarified that the Americans expect and hope that the Europeans will act more this time. "I think that the support comes from both Germany and the European Union. That way, people in Ukraine can see that the aid will continue.
Expectations are high. Even for NATO, this is an unusual situation. The United States, the strongest military power in the world, is unable in Congress to approve the promised military aid. And this is happening under the leadership of President Joe Biden, who is completely oriented towards the transatlantic alliance. While with the arrival of Trump in the White House, things can change much more./Taken from DW
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