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Ahead of the presidential election in November, the US accused Russia of influencing the election - not for the first time. Which candidate will Russia support?
Since last week, the American authorities have focused on the investigation of a company in the American state of Tennessee. This company is said to have received ten million dollars from the state television Russia Today (RT) to "create and distribute content with hidden Russian government news to the American audience."
Specifically, the money was said to have been used to produce videos promoting mostly right-wing narratives on topics such as immigration, gender issues and the economy ahead of the US elections in November 2024. These videos were then shared on social media by several influencers right-wingers working for the company in Tennessee — allegedly unaware that the videos were made with Russian involvement. The videos are actually said to have been edited and produced by two RT employees.
The views expressed in the video were "often consistent with the Russian government's interest in increasing divisiveness within the United States," the indictment said. The goal is "to weaken the US in dealing with Russian interests, for example in the war in Ukraine."
Global intervention
The current case offers only a small glimpse into how Russia likely operates to influence elections – although Moscow itself regularly denies any allegations of meddling in other countries' elections.
"Russia has been trying for years to influence elections in democratic countries, such as the 2016 US presidential election or the 2017 French presidential election," says Julia Smirnova of the Berlin Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) - a institute that studies methods of disinformation and conspiracy ideologies on the Internet. In October 2023, the US sent an intelligence report to 100 friendly countries around the world that said Russia was actively using "spies, social networks and state media" to undermine public confidence in the integrity of democratic elections in worldwide.
Between 2020 and 2022, this is said to have happened in at least nine countries, while in another 17 countries there was "a less pronounced level" of Russian social media activity, and this should be taken very seriously by these countries. Russia has also tried to influence the European elections in June 2024.
Intimidation, disinformation, manipulation of opinion
The possibilities of misuse are very great. In elections in one European country in 2020, campaigners were said to be scared. Reports say that Russian state media has massively spread false claims of voter fraud in several democratic elections around the world in 2020 and 2021. In at least one country in South America, Moscow has also spread massive doubts about the independence of the elections. . "Different methods are used: for example, hacker attacks in which the internal documents of politicians are published, real or sometimes even fake documents, as in the 2017 elections in France," says Smirnova.
"What Russia uses is the manipulation of public opinion through social media using fake accounts, as well as through open channels like RT."
The so-called "dual campaign" shows exactly what this can look like: the central element is "cloned websites of the main Western media", such as Spiegel, FAZ, Washington Post, FoxNews and many others, explains Julia Smirnova. These sites are similar to real media sites – except for the content. "Some of the published texts were fabricated stories, but there were also articles that spread certain political opinions," said Smirnova. The fake articles are then posted on social media, sometimes in the comments of real posts by popular media outlets. Often, says the CeMAS analyst, these are "pro-Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine, with which Russia is trying to undermine support for Ukraine in the West."
The long-term goal: to undermine democracy
The purpose of Russian intervention is no longer only to spread and reinforce pro-Russian positions, for example regarding the war in Ukraine. It will go much further. "The main goal is to promote Russia's geopolitical interests. But also the destabilization of countries that the Kremlin perceives as opponents of Russia." For this purpose, polarizing discussions in democratic countries are encouraged even more in order to create divisions in society and strengthen elements that go in favor of Russia.
To achieve this goal, the parties in the political periphery are strengthened politically as well as financially. As of 2022, the Washington Post reported on at least $300 million being given to the accounts of particularly Russia-friendly parties around the world, including smaller countries such as Albania, Montenegro, Madagascar and Ecuador. According to US intelligence agencies, Kremlin-linked forces also used certain companies, think tanks and other means to influence political events – often to the benefit of right-wing extremist groups. In March 2024, the Czech secret service BIS uncovered a Russian-funded influence network that, among others, Peter Bystron, a member of the AfD in the Bundestag, which is classified as a far-right party, is said to have received financial payments. These payments are believed to have been processed through the Prague-based pro-Russian Internet portal "Voice of Europe". It is said that payments have also been made to extreme parties in France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary.
Not always successful
Ultimately, according to the US intelligence report from October 2023, Russia pursues two goals: to portray democratic elections as generally unreliable and to delegitimize the governments that emerge from these elections. This destabilizes the affected democracies and thus weakens Russia's opponents around the world.
But these campaigns are not always successful. "The US has discovered and seized 32 Internet domains that were used in the campaign last week," explains Julia Smirnova. In essence, this is also about "the strength and stability of democratic societies". This also includes educational programs to increase media literacy among young people and adults so that they are aware of and do not fall prey to Russian online influence.
"Russia invests significant sums in its campaigns around the world every year," says Julia Smirnova. "These efforts must be taken very seriously. But we must say that Russia's campaigns and efforts often do not reach their goal."/ DW
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