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The future of far-right leader Marine Le Pen – and France's political landscape – will be decided on Monday when a court rules on charges against Le Pen and her party officials of embezzling funds from the European Parliament.
If convicted, the three-time presidential candidate of the National Rally (RN) could be banned from running against Emmanuel Macron in the 2027 presidential election.
Public prosecutors have asked that Le Pen be given a fine of €300,000 (£250,000), a prison sentence and that she be banned from holding or seeking to hold political office for five years.
On Friday, in a case not involving Le Pen, France's constitutional council dealt a blow to the RN's personality when it ruled that politicians can be immediately banned from office if convicted of a crime.
Le Pen has accused prosecutors of seeking her "political death" and said not allowing her to run for office would confuse the wishes of voters and threaten the democratic process.
A poll in Le Figaro earlier this month suggested that 42% of French people wanted her to be elected President of France in 2027.
Le Pen nominated Jordan Bardella, 29, as president of the RN in 2021, but a senior party member said there was no "plan B" if Le Pen was immediately declared ineligible to run in 2027.
Marc de Fleurian, the RN MP for Pas-de-Calais, said that "the issue of inadequacy does not arise. It is not taboo, but as long as we have said that such injustice cannot happen, it will not happen."
Le Pen and 24 others from the RN, including party officials, staff, MPs and aides, were tried last November on charges of taking money from the European Parliament as part of an alleged jobs scam. Instead of spending the money on EU staff, they were accused of using it to pay party staff in France. The European Parliament estimated the allegedly embezzled funds at around 7 million euros. Le Pen and the others have denied the charges.
Any ruling that does not clear Le Pen of wrongdoing would leave her political future in grave doubt. If she is found guilty of embezzlement, she will almost certainly appeal, which would require a new trial, and any prison sentence or fine would be suspended until the appeal hearing is heard. If she is given a five-year ban from running for public office with immediate effect, it is unlikely that she will be able to enter the 2027 presidential race unless the appeal process is expedited and she is released in time from the ruling barring her from running. If the judges decide to extend the ban, she will still have what one RN member described as a “Damoclean sword” hanging over her political campaign.
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