FLASH
Shkruar nga Federiko Rampini
How the health of the US economy and voter pessimism should be read...
One reason Joe Biden could lose the election on November 5 is America's gloomy mood. His age weighs, but only as an additional factor: the fact is that most Americans are deeply unhappy. The state of mind of the country seems to contradict the economic situation: good or even great. How can this divergence be explained?
Biden is struggling to unite the most progressive voters who are young. One reason is this: to admit that the American economy is doing well is incompatible with the ideological certainties of this generation, which is convinced that capitalism is oppressive and growth will cause a climate catastrophe.
In other words, the prevailing ideology today on the radical left overshadows young people, preventing them from recognizing positive results even if they have occurred under a left-wing government. For many of them, the good news is incompatible with their representation of the world, so it must be impossible. And so, precisely in the progressive camp, one of the main arguments in favor of Biden and his re-election falls apart.
Consumer confidence is at an all-time low
I take a step back and remember that we are indeed in an abnormal situation. As Rogé Karma points out in "The Atlantic" magazine, one of the most reliable indicators of the perception of the economic situation by Americans is the periodic survey of consumers conducted for decades by the University of Michigan. Karma asks: if you had to guess what was the moment of the most serious pessimism among Americans, which period would you choose? Maybe the 1970s with two oil shocks, recession and double digit hyperinflation? Perhaps the Great Global Crisis of 2008 caused by the subprime mortgage collapse on Wall Street? Perhaps the start of the pandemic when Covid caused millions of Americans to lose their jobs? All reasonable hypotheses, all wrong.
According to the University of Michigan Consumer Surveys, the trough of pessimism was reached in June 2022. A possible explanation is that in that month inflation rose to 9% and moreover everyone was talking about an impending recession (which did not happen never).
Më pas, situata u përmirësua me shpejtësi të madhe dhe përtej shpresave të më optimistëve. Për më tepër, humbjet ekonomike dhe shqetësimet sociale të shkaktuara nga fillimi i pandemisë u shëruan gjithashtu shpejt me ndihmën më bujare publike në botë (5 trilion dollarë, përfituan tre të katërtat e familjeve amerikane). Megjithatë, indeksi i besimit të konsumatorëve nuk u rrit siç pritej. Misteri pse Biden konsiderohet një president i tmerrshëm nga shumica e amerikanëve, ndërkohë që ekonomia po lulëzon, ka ngjallur reagime zhgënjimi dhe indinjate në Shtëpinë e Bardhë dhe në qarqet e elitës së majtë. Ndër më të papajtuesit është ekonomisti Paul Krugman, i cili prej muajsh në rubrikat e Neë York Times ka praktikuar variacione të pafundme mbi temën që unë e përmbledh kështu, me fjalët e mia: ne jetojmë në botët më të mira, ata amerikanë që nuk i japin meritë Bidenit, ata janë budallenj apo fashistë, ose të dyja.
E vërteta për inflacionin
Për fat të mirë, reagimet pak më të balancuara janë të shumta. Sa i përket inflacionit, ne e dimë mirë se cili është problemi. Gjatë pandemisë pati një rritje të madhe të çmimeve, me rritje mujore prej 9% si ajo e përmendur tashmë. Tani, kur thonë se "inflacioni po ngadalësohet" sepse "ka rënë në rreth 3%", kjo nuk do të thotë se çmimet janë kthyer në nivelet e mëparshme. Ato vazhdojnë të rriten, për fat të mirë shumë më ngadalë. Megjithatë, dëmi është bërë. Konsumatorët janë shumë pak të interesuar për "normën e inflacionit" për të cilën ekonomistët janë të pasionuar; ata me të drejtë shikojnë nivelin absolut të çmimeve, i cili mbetet shumë i lartë. Dhe kjo krijon pakënaqësi, për zhgënjimin e madh të Krugman.
Më pas duhet të shtojmë dinamikën çmim-pagë. Amerika po përjeton një sezon të shkëlqyer për punëtorët, pagat e të cilëve vitet e fundit janë rritur në shumë raste sa çmimet dhe në disa raste më shumë. Kategori të tilla si metalpunëtorët e makinave, shoferët e kamionëve ose punëtorët e portit kanë nënshkruar rinovime kontratash me rritje nga 25% në 30%, kështu që ata marrin të ardhurat në shtëpi që i kompensojnë ata për rritjen e kostos së jetesës.
Të rinjtë e dënojnë kapitalizmin, ndaj refuzojnë lajmet e mira...
Then comes the other phenomenon that mostly involves young people. Their perception of the economy is very different from that of adults, especially on the left. According to a CNN poll, 63% of Democrats over 45 think the economy is healthy; instead, only 35% of young people have the same positive outlook. Here the explanation is cultural and ideological. It ties in with this other data: among young Democrats ages 18 to 35, voters who tend to be more progressive and radical than older Democrats, favorable opinion of the market economy and capitalism has dropped from 56% in 40%. in a decade. Young people think that socialism is much better than capitalism, they blame the latter for all the evils of humanity.
"Admitting that the economy is doing well - notes the columnist in The Atlantic, a clearly progressive magazine - would require the sacrifice of ideology and therefore self-perception, the typical identity of progressive youth." It doesn't matter if there's a Democrat in the White House. If a young person has been fed (or indoctrinated) with the certainty that capitalism is an oppressive system, that America is an unjust society, that economic growth will destroy the planet, then this young person has been "vaccinated" against the good news, he refuses to take it as such.
On the Republican front, the mechanism that matters is more predictable. It's an ancient statistical rule: the electorate has a more negative opinion of the economic situation when the country is led by a leader belonging to the opposing party. Moreover, right-wing people "balance" the good economic news with the bad news coming from other fronts: uncontrolled illegal immigration, increasing crime, feelings of insecurity, the decline of traditional values. There are no real surprises on this front. The downside surprise for Biden is the New Left's imperviousness to good news under his presidency.
Please note: what is written above shows Biden's vulnerability, it does not equate to a prediction of his defeat. Many other uncertainties weigh on the final outcome, Trump's weaknesses are certainly not lacking (and I will have the opportunity to write about them). In the next six months, who knows what else might happen to affect the bottom line. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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