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US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with the latest intelligence assessments.
That would be a provocative move given that Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire deal that halted the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also expected to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The intelligence also highlights how Iran could use the ceasefire as an opportunity to resupply certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.
Two of the sources told CNN that there are indications that Beijing is working to route shipments through third countries to mask their true origins.
The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the five-week war and could pose again if the ceasefire breaks down.
A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said that "China has never supplied weapons to any party in the conflict; the information in question is false."
"As a major and responsible country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We call on the US side to refrain from making groundless accusations, drawing malicious connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help ease tensions," he said.
Earlier this week, an embassy spokesperson told CNN that since the start of the US-Israel-Iran war, Beijing had "worked to help achieve a ceasefire and end the conflict."
Trump said during a press conference on Monday that the F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran last week was hit by a "hand-held, heat-seeking missile," and Iran said it had used a "new" air defense system to shoot down the jet, without providing further details. It is not clear whether that system was made in China.
Sending MANPADs to Iran would mark an escalation of China's support for the country since the US and Israel launched their joint military campaign in February.
Chinese companies have continued to sell the Iranians sanctioned dual-use technology that enables Iran to continue building weapons and improving its navigation systems, the sources said, but the direct transfer of weapons systems by the Chinese government would mark a new level of assistance.
Trump is expected to meet Xi next month in Beijing, and the White House said on Wednesday that high-level talks had taken place between the US and China, while ceasefire negotiations with Iran took place earlier this week.
One of the sources familiar with the intelligence said that China sees no real strategic value in openly entering the conflict and trying to defend Iran from the US and Israel, which they know would be impossible to win. Instead, Beijing is trying to position itself as a constant friend of Iran, on whose oil it depends heavily, while remaining ostensibly neutral so that it can maintain deniability after the war is over.
The sources said the Chinese could also argue that the air defense systems are defensive rather than offensive in nature, distinguishing their support from that of Russia. Moscow has provided support to the Iranian regime throughout the war in the form of intelligence sharing that has helped Iran proactively target US troops and assets in the Middle East, CNN reported.
Iran has long established military and economic relations with both China and Russia. Iran has extensively assisted Russia in its war against Ukraine by providing Shahed drones and also sells most of its sanctioned oil to China. /Adapted from Pamphlet /
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