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US officials privately acknowledge that Russia would retain roughly 20% of Ukraine's territory under a potential peace deal, the New York Times reported. That is the view of the administration of outgoing US President Joe Biden and the team of President-elect Donald Trump, according to the newspaper.
Therefore, any potential ceasefire could resemble the one reached at the end of the Korean War in 1953, which froze the conflict indefinitely but never led to a formal peace treaty, the NYT said. The future agreement would also need to include some kind of security guarantee, he added.
According to the newspaper, the proposal under consideration includes a ceasefire monitored by European peacekeeping forces, with British, German and French troops likely to take the lead.
Two senior Biden administration officials, however, told the newspaper that the main issue will revolve around whether the Trump administration will continue to provide intelligence and weapons to Ukraine, allowing Kiev to continue its attacks inside Russia.
The report comes after Michael Waltz, Trump's national security adviser, acknowledged earlier this month that the conflict must be ended diplomatically and that it was "not realistic to say that we are going to expel every Russian from every inch of Ukrainian soil, even Crimea."
He added that Trump has acknowledged this, describing it as "a big step forward that the whole world is accepting this reality."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed approval of the change in tone from the incoming US administration. “We welcome the fact that the incoming administration has started to mention the realities on the ground more often,” he said last week.
Waltz's comments echoed those made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in December, when he acknowledged that the country lacks the military strength to reclaim all the territory it claims as its own. However, he ruled out any formal territorial concessions, saying Kiev would need to explore a diplomatic path to achieve its goals.
The Ukrainian leader has also insisted that Kiev must join NATO to ensure its defense – a deal-breaker for Russia, which sees the US-led bloc's expansion towards its border as an existential threat.
Moscow has ruled out any freeze in the conflict, insisting that all war goals – including Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarization and denazification – must be met. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has also said that Moscow will not give up any of its new territories, referring to the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
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