FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Can a man who promises mass deportation fix America's immigration system?
On January 7, at his winter palace in Florida, the president-elect considered annexing Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Less noticed on January 7, the House of Representatives passed the Laken Riley Act, which makes it easier to deport unauthorized immigrants for minor crimes like shoplifting. Immigration is where the incoming administration is likely to direct its first efforts after the Jan. 20 inauguration. And here, too, Donald Trump promises the same murky cocktail. Illegal immigration is a problem that lends itself to wild, crowd-pleasing, destructive policies, and presents opportunities for beneficial reform. The path Mr. Trump chooses will not only mean something for his presidency, but could also send ripples across many other rich countries that have political problems over immigration.
Under Joe Biden's presidency, chaos erupted at the border, at least for a while. And to the electoral cost it took, many Democrats responded by blaming voter inconsistency for it.
In the latest numbers, the Census Bureau records a net increase of 2.8 million immigrants in 2023. The percentage of foreign-born residents in America has been the highest since 1885, when Frederick Trump left Germany for New York , but it is the highest in a century. Although most Americans welcome legal immigrants and the country is good at assimilating them, they are not outraged when immigrants seek asylum and then disappear into a shadowy job market while they await a court hearing.
Trump takes office with a mandate to tighten controls. On the campaign trail, he expanded on the vitriolic rhetoric that marked his first term, talking about immigrants "poisoning the blood" of America. The contrast with that first term, when fewer people were actually deported than under Barack Obama, is that this time he seems to want the focus on immigration to be real. His deputy chief of staff is Stephen Miller, who wants to limit legal and illegal migration. His border czar is Tom Homan, one of the originators of the family separation policy in his first term. And he has threatened to deploy the National Guard to help with deportations, where previous presidents used soldiers only for logistical support.
Trump will not be able to follow through on his threat to deport 15 million people. Deporting such large numbers would be extremely costly and would shock the labor market, raising the prices of the goods and services that illegal immigrants support. Research suggests that evictions under Mr. Obama slowed homebuilding by forcing out many plasterers and bricklayers. And mass deportations would be unpopular because over half of all undocumented migrants have been in America for more than a decade. They have jobs and families and often live in blue states that won't cooperate.
Instead, Mr. Trump is likely to seek a more hands-on policy. The temptation will be to throw the problem in Mexico. When deporting people, a major hurdle is finding governments to take them in. Therefore, Mr. Trump could simply turn back those arriving via the southern border, threatening Mexico with tariffs if it does not allow them to enter. However, it is not in America's long-term interest to destabilize its poorer, southern neighbor. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledges that helping America with immigration enforcement is a high card in any negotiations with the Trump administration and has signaled a willingness to help. He must meet her halfway.
Another temptation will be to focus on theatrical cruelty as a substitute for real action. Expect workplace raids, forced deportations to border states and ICE agents. As with the Conservative Party's plan to transfer Britain's asylum system to Rwanda, this too looks like a solution in part to deter would-be migrants. It is also to convince voters that the government is serious.
Cruelty for its own sake is wrong. By denying the humanity of immigrants, it hardens American values. It can also be unpopular. In Trump's first term, Americans reacted against separating families and locking children in cages; support for immigration increased. Once Mr. Biden took office, support for immigration plummeted. This dynamic creates room for Mr. Trump to accomplish something less harsh and more sustainable.
The first step is to strengthen the border. Mr. Trump is lucky, because irregular crossings have already fallen sharply from their peak in 2022, after the Biden administration struck deals with Mexico and other Latin American countries to help stem the flow.
Mr. Trump could build on this by pushing immigration officials at the border to make quick decisions on whether claims are valid. He could also force asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their cases are decided, as he did in his first term. The second step is to focus deportations on criminals, as his chief of staff has suggested.
This could create consent for a third step that has long been clear but politically out of reach. As a practical matter and as an exercise of justice, America cannot deport every illegal immigrant. Doing nothing means that about 11 million people will spend their entire lives in America without ever earning the right to live there. But if immigration flows are not under control, amnesty for those already in the United States risks attracting another wave of attempts to enter illegally. The only solution is an agreement that combines effective border enforcement with the right to stay for law-abiding migrants.
The deal of the century
Such a compromise is possible. No Republican politician can outdo Mr. Trump on immigration, and Democrats' alarm helps him look tough. Chances are he wants to keep immigration a wedge issue, pick fights with Democratic governors and mayors, and leave things largely as he found them. But the conditions are in place for him to make a deal that has eluded the past five presidents — if he wants to. /Pamphlet adapted from The Economist /
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