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Hamas has issued a statement announcing that it has launched an extensive consultation process to choose a new leader of its movement following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group's political bureau. His replacement, Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January, would have been the automatic replacement.
Several senior Hamas officials may replace Haniyeh once the group's Shura council, the main consultative body, convenes.
The new political leadership of Hamas will have to decide whether to pursue the military option, and become essentially a guerilla and underground group, or choose a leader who can offer political compromises – an unlikely option at this stage.
Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran official and former Hamas leader, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
" It won't be easy," said al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Strategic Research.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with to. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkey and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who led the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to express his condolences over Haniyeh's killing.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figure leading the war in Gaza, is on the opposite end of this spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal's leadership.
Al-Hayya is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent leader living in exile and originally from Gaza, with significant international connections and good relations with the military, as well as Iran and Turkey.
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