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What happened to the Bayesian ship? How is it possible that a 56 meter sailing ship sank in just a few minutes? Experts in extreme events, marine engineering and safety explain what they believe are the critical points that could explain the tragedy.
Unpredictable tornadoes
Weather conditions were the main cause of Bayesian sinking. Could they have noticed the arrival of the waters on board? "The wind was very strong: it was not normal, a whirlwind or a tornado", testifies Giuseppe Cefalù, a fisherman from Porticello, who was among the first to provide help. Such a thing has not been seen here before." Waterspouts are fast and extreme events. The conditions for their formation can be predicted, but in macro-areas. At the moment it is not possible to predict exactly where and when they will strike. Perhaps a tool that could have been useful is the weather radar, like those that the Civil Defense. Many Regions and specialized sites make them available 24 hours a day, updated every 5 minutes. They don't identify tornadoes, they identify areas where dangerous phenomena occur. "Radar is the best tool, but we checked and the accident area has intermittent radar coverage," says Francesco De Martin, an expert in extreme weather events at the University of Bologna. "It is not certain that they may have had this information. The radar predicts a strong storm coming in 10-15 minutes, probably too little time to maneuver the boat and get to safety."
Mast and hull
The image of the 75 meter Bayesian mast sinking into the sea is impressive. It is the element that, with the wind, allows a sailboat to sail. "Theoretically, it is very difficult for a mast to break, even of this size, but it is also true that the Bayesian suddenly found himself inside a blender and faced ascending and descending forces that upset all the equilibria. Even for a boat like this that has been sailed and designed by a very experienced professional like Ron Holland. "For Andrea Ratti, professor at the Milan Polytechnic, where he directs a master's degree in yacht design for architects and marine engineering, the study of balance of a ship is essential. “The mast is used to support the sails and allow the sail to be pushed, but with the wind a side force also comes into play that causes the boat to sway. The bulb, a kind of counterweight placed under the boat, generates an adjusting torque capable of stabilizing it. "Sinking hypothesis? A boat like this doesn't sink in seconds without a waterway. Breaking the window areas on the side of the boat is extremely dangerous."
Wrong location
"Finding yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time," noted Salvatore Cocina, general manager of the Civil Protection of the Sicily Region. A consideration made on the unpredictability of such violent atmospheric phenomena due to climate change. But there are those who have wondered whether the Bayesian, given the unfavorable climatic conditions, was really in the wrong place, that is, too close to the coast. For example, Rosario Marretta, professor of Computational Fluid Dynamics at the University of Palermo, while stating that he has not "seen the documents obtained by the judicial authority", nevertheless notes that "we have to ask ourselves why, with a weather report significantly deteriorated, the boat was in the middle of the night at a distance that was not a safe distance from the shore. / Corriere Della Sera
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