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Europe is now doing what would have seemed strange just a few years ago...
Russia's drones and agents are carrying out attacks on all NATO countries, and Europe is now doing what would have seemed strange just a few years ago: it is planning how to counterattack.
The ideas range from joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, to faster and more coordinated attribution of hybrid attacks by immediately blaming Moscow, to surprise NATO-led military exercises, according to two senior European government officials and three EU diplomats.
Russian drones have flown near Poland and Romania in recent weeks and months, while mysterious drones have caused chaos at airports and military bases across the continent. Other incidents include GPS jamming, interference by fighter jets and naval vessels, and an explosion on a key rail line in Poland carrying military aid to Ukraine.
"Overall, Europe and the alliance must ask themselves the question of how long we are willing to tolerate this kind of hybrid warfare... and whether we should consider the possibility of being more active in this area," German State Secretary for Defense Florian Hahn told Welt TV last week.
Hybrid attacks are nothing new. In recent years, Russia has sent assassins to eliminate political enemies in the United Kingdom, been accused of blowing up weapons depots in Central Europe, tried to destabilize the EU by funding far-right political parties, engaged in social media warfare, and attempted to influence elections in countries like Romania and Moldova.
However, the scale and frequency of the current attacks are unprecedented. GLOBSEC, a research organization based in Bratislava, estimates that there were more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks carried out in Europe between January and July, mainly in Poland and France, by individuals with ties to Moscow.
"Today's world offers a much more open, even, one might say creative, space for foreign policy. We are closely monitoring the growing militarization of Europe. Is it just rhetoric, or is it time for us to respond?" said Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Russia may see the EU and NATO as rivals or even enemies; last month former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Kremlin's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said that the US is their adversary. However, Europe does not want war with a nuclear-armed Russia and therefore needs to find a way to respond in a way that deters Moscow, without crossing any Kremlin red lines that could lead to open conflict.
This does not mean hiding, according to Sweden's Chief of Defense, General Michael Claesson.
"We cannot allow ourselves to be afraid and get caught up in excessive anxiety about escalation. We must be determined ," he said in an interview.
So far, the response has been to strengthen defenses. After Russian combat drones were shot down over Poland, NATO announced it would strengthen air and anti-drone defenses on the alliance's eastern flank, a call also supported by the EU.
This also irritates Moscow.
"Europeans should be afraid and tremble like silent animals in a herd being led to the slaughter. They should soil themselves with fear, sensing their imminent and painful end," Medvedev said in early October.
Wing replacement
Frequent Russian provocations are changing the tone in European capitals. After deploying 10,000 troops last week to protect Poland’s critical infrastructure after the sabotage of a rail line connecting Warsaw to Kiev, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on November 21 accused Moscow of engaging in “state terrorism.”
After the incident, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said such threats pose an "extreme risk" to the bloc, arguing that there must be a strong response to the attacks.
The application of the word
Despite the increasingly tough rhetoric, what a stronger response would mean remains unclear. Part of this has to do with the difference between Moscow and Brussels—the latter operates more within the rules—according to Kevin Limonier, professor and deputy director at the Paris-based think tank GEODE. So far, countries like Germany and Romania are tightening regulations that allow authorities to shoot down drones that fly over airports and sensitive military facilities.
Meanwhile, national security services can operate in legal gray areas. Allies from Denmark to the Czech Republic already allow offensive cyber operations. The United Kingdom reportedly hacked into ISIS networks in 2017 to obtain information about the terrorist group’s early drone program.
In practice, countries could use cyber methods to target systems critical to Russia's war effort, such as the Alabuga economic zone in Tatarstan in east-central Russia, where Moscow produces Shahed drones; as well as energy facilities or trains carrying weapons, said Filip Bryjka, a political scientist and hybrid threat expert at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Europe also needs to figure out how to respond to large-scale disinformation campaigns by Russia, including efforts within its own countries.
"Russian public opinion... is somewhat inaccessible. We need to work with allies who have a fairly detailed understanding of Russian thinking, which means that cooperation also needs to be established in the area of information warfare ," said a senior military official.
However, any new measure "must be capable of convincing denial," said an EU diplomat.
Show of force
NATO, for its part, is a defensive organization and is therefore wary of offensive operations.
"Asymmetric responses are an important part of the discussion, but we will not follow the same tactics as Russia," said a NATO diplomat.
Instead, the alliance should prioritize shows of force that demonstrate strength and unity, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. In practice, that means quickly announcing if Moscow is behind a hybrid attack and conducting “unannounced” military exercises on the Russian border with Lithuania or Estonia.
Meanwhile, the NATO-backed European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, which brings together allied officials, is also “providing expertise and training” and developing policies to counter these threats, said Maarten ten Wolde, a senior analyst at the organization./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Politico"
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