FLASH
Shkruar nga Gideon Rachman
The Trump administration had accused European governments of subverting democratic processes...
Europe matters to MAGA. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy asserted that “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States.” But it also expressed concern that the European continent was on a path to “civilizational collapse,” citing mass migration, “suppression of political opposition,” and declining birthrates.
So what should be done? The strategy proposed that the US intervene by “ cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European countries.” The main tool was to create alliances with “ European patriotic parties.”
It’s been about seven months since the publication of this unusual document. But the MAGA agenda for Europe is already collapsing. European parties and politicians that Donald Trump’s people consider “patriots” are losing power or are rapidly distancing themselves from the American president. The biggest blow was Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary in April. But Trump has also alienated potential allies in Italy, Germany, France and Britain.
The loss of Orbán, a figure adored by MAGA and a regular speaker at the Trump-linked CPAC conference, was a particular blow. The former Hungarian prime minister was not only an ideological ally but also a useful partner for Trump, often blocking joint European action on issues like aid to Ukraine.
The Trump administration had accused European governments of subverting democratic processes. However, it did not hesitate to intervene in support of Orbán, a defender of “illiberal democracy,” who completely excluded his rival, Péter Magyar, from television coverage. JD Vance even traveled to Budapest to support Orbán during the campaign. Without success: Magyar won.
The Hungarian elections showed that the European Union has much more to offer its member states than the United States. Orbán’s repeated violations of European law had led to severe restrictions on EU funds for Hungary, damaging the economy. The prospect of restoring these funds gave Hungarian voters a direct material benefit that the White House could not offer.
Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, was also seen as ideologically close to the Trump White House. Vance wrote the foreword to her latest book. But Meloni also knows that Italy is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the European Union’s Covid-19 recovery fund, receiving almost 200 billion euros in grants and loans.
Trump’s displeasure with Italy’s reluctance to support the US in its confrontation with Iran led him to speak of Meloni in highly offensive tones. She hit back. Political experience in the US may have convinced Trump that he can insult and humiliate political opponents, such as Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, and they will still rally behind him. But this model is unlikely to work with a leader who answers to Italian voters, not the Republican elite.
The behavior of Trump and his supporters may have lost much of its shock value in the United States. But in Europe it continues to provoke strong reactions, forcing even potential allies to distance themselves from the American president. Jordan Bardella, one of the two leading figures in France's Rassemblement National, refused to speak at the CPAC conference last year after Steve Bannon, Trump's former adviser, made a gesture on stage that was interpreted as a Nazi salute.
When Trump disparaged the contribution of British and allied troops to the war in Afghanistan, his friend Nigel Farage was forced to publicly express his disagreement. A poll this year showed that only 14 percent of Britons have a positive opinion of Trump, while 81 percent have an unfavourable opinion. A close association with him is likely to be an electoral burden for Farage and his Reform UK party.
The US president is even more unpopular in Germany, where only 10 percent have a positive opinion of him. This creates a dilemma for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which Vance and other administration figures have supported. The AfD is leading in the polls, but its leaders are now distancing themselves from the Trump administration. Also, the German electoral system makes it unlikely that the AfD will secure a formal role in the federal government, dampening the White House's hopes of bringing Germany closer to its own positions.
The Trump administration had high hopes that Calin Georgescu, a far-right populist candidate, would win the 2025 presidential election in Romania. Vance reacted angrily when the election was overturned amid allegations of Russian interference in the campaign. Georgescu was barred from running, and the closest candidate to him subsequently lost to a pro-EU candidate. As a result, the closest MAGA president in Europe may now be Poland’s Karol Nawrocki. But his influence on Polish domestic politics is limited by the Constitution, and Polish leaders are unlikely to tolerate the White House’s approach to Russia.
Meanwhile, MAGA is having much more success finding ideological partners in Latin America. After the recent presidential elections in Colombia, it now has a leader close to Trump, as it does in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and El Salvador. For now, Mexico and Brazil, the region’s two most populous countries, have resisted this trend.
Widespread crime, poverty and weak institutions make Latin America more vulnerable to Trumpism. But in Europe's more prosperous and consolidated democracies, the MAGA message is failing. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "FinancialTimes"
Partizanët e z. Trump mund të jenë duke humbur mbështetje, por shumë pika të axhendës së Tij për Europën po realizohen. Shtërngimi i ligjeve të emigracionit, rritja e vetveprimit europian, bashkëpunim mbi baza reciprociteti, rritja e kontriibutit në NATO, jo dy por pesë përqind, e më tej. Pak rëndësi kanë individët, rëndësi ka çfarë po ndodh realisht. Vizioni i z. Trump, me apo pa dëshirë, po bëhet realitetit, dhe faktikisht po aplikohet nga shumë shtete me qeveri majtiste.