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Rajoni dhe Bota2024-11-04 19:11:00

What will a Trump presidency mean for global wars and European security?

Shkruar nga Pamfleti

What will a Trump presidency mean for global wars and European security?

Donald Trump says he would end Russia's war in Ukraine if he returns to the White House, but any rushed deal is likely to leave Kiev much weaker and European security at even greater risk.

Another important point that the Trump presidency would seek to influence immediately is the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Trump came close to a direct war with Tehran during his first term in office, and previous restraint could give way to direct confrontation this time around.

Then there is the overwhelming long-term challenge posed by China, with North Korea another growing headache, especially after Mr Trump tried but failed to woo the Hermit State leader during his first stint as commander-in-chief.

With the US election on a knife's edge, hostile and friendly capitals around the world have been playing up what a second Trump White House could mean for their respective national interests and the most pressing global security threats.

Mr. Trump's history of unpredictability is a challenge to traditional enemies — but also to Washington's closest allies, especially other members of the NATO alliance.

The Republican candidate has made no secret of his frustration with how the US has funded for decades the security blanket that protects Europe.

During his first term as president, Trump threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance, a move that would almost certainly sound like death. Yet his rhetoric helped to encourage the Allies to dig deeper into their pockets and spend more on their armies.

But the damage from years of underinvestment runs deep, and the pace of recovery is too slow for European NATO allies and Canada to credibly stand as a strong military force anytime soon.

When it comes to global crises, the impact of a Trump victory on November 5 would be felt most by Ukraine and also by Iran.

The presidential candidate has repeatedly asserted that he would end the war in Ukraine, but without explaining how and what peace would look like.

Yet in an indication of where his priorities lie, he has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being the "biggest salesman on earth" for providing tens of billions of dollars in arms and other aid that Washington has given to Kiev.

However, along with Ukraine's willingness to fight, that military aid is the biggest reason why Ukraine has managed to withstand almost 1,000 days of Vladimir Putin's war.

In contrast, under US President Kamala Harris, who is running for the top job, has made it clear that she sees continued support for Ukraine as vital to US and Western interests as much as Kievin a much more familiar stance that echoes the view of its NATO partners.

While US support for Ukraine would undoubtedly change under a Trump administration.
The former president - who has adopted a new election slogan "Trump will fix it" - will not want to be held responsible for Ukraine's total absorption into Putin's orbit.
Putin and Iran.

His relationship with the Russian president is a particularly interesting dynamic. When he was president, he infamously said he believed Mr Putin's denials about his own intelligence agencies when it came to allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election. But with the right advice, could a future President Trump be able to use his connection with Putin to the West's advantage?

Perhaps the most important element when it comes to assessing the potential impact on the world of a second Trump term.

As for Iran, in stark contrast to his approach to Russia's war in Ukraine, a future President Trump could support far greater US military support for Israel's conflict against Tehran and its proxies — perhaps even involving direct involvement of American forces in attacks on Iran.

Trump has taken an even tougher stance on Tehran and its nuclear ambitions than the Joe Biden administration.

His decision to scrap a major nuclear deal with Iran was one of his most significant foreign policy acts during his four years as president.

It's also personal, with Iran accused of hacking the Trump campaign in recent months — an attack that would likely only increase tensions with Iran during any second Trump term. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Sky News"

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