FLASH
Shkruar nga Edward Luce
The risk of Trump taking America over the line into autocracy seems more like 50:50.
If you could condense the Democratic Party’s plan into one line, it would be: “Just wait until the midterm elections.” The belief that the economy under President Donald Trump will slow down is already supported by the data. Inflation expectations are rising, consumer confidence is falling, and voters are starting to worry about public job cuts. Throw in Trump’s accumulated trade war toll and a midterm defeat looks plausible.
But betting on Trump’s failure is missing what got him there. The worse things go in politics as they’re meant to be played, the more likely he is to rip up the rule book. Former Vice President Dick Cheney had a rule that if there was a 1 percent chance of something happening, we should act as if it were going to happen. Cheney was referring to the terrorists after 9/11 using weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile, the risk of Trump taking America over the line into autocracy seems more like 50:50.
The more precarious his situation, the more the boat will burn. A little over six years ago, I considered Trump not a fascist because he lacked one key trait – a plan to take control of the so-called ministries of power. With apologies for the self-quote (which I promise not to repeat), this was my verdict: “The first thing aspiring totalitarians do is purge the military. Loyalists must be installed. Then they methodically do the same for the police, the intelligence agencies and beyond. . . Trump is not even trying to do that.”
This time, Trump started with that very plan. Within a month, he had removed every repressive body in the state and replaced them with loyalists. Last Friday, he purged the top echelons of the Pentagon. His social media firings of CQ Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Lisa Franchetti, the chief of naval operations. This fits in with new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s fight against DEI. Hegseth even implied that Brown was hired because of affirmative action.
More serious is what Trump believes his choice for the new head of the US military, Dan Caine, is prepared to do for him.
"I love you sir. I think you're great sir. I would kill for you sir," Trump claims Caine told him when they first met.
Trump tried last time to put US troops on the streets to shoot protesters and migrants crossing the border. But he failed to prepare the ground by putting other people under control.
This time, Trump has a chance at those jobs. Last Friday, he also fired the attorney generals for the Navy, Army and Air Force. These are the top legal officers who tell military leaders what is legal and what is not. Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, his new chief and deputy director of the FBI, are in place because they have promised Trump unquestioning obedience.
One mistake Trump’s opponents made in his first term was to believe he would be undone by former special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into his alleged collusion with Russia. Mueller’s report, which was a curse nonetheless, has been vindicated by Trump’s pro-Russia moves in the past two weeks. But Mueller’s findings were a wet sham in part because Barr released his recommendation not to prosecute him in advance. There will be no Trump investigation this time. Those at risk include Mark Milley, the former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who earned Trump’s enmity by refusing to obey unconstitutional orders.
The invective is also stronger this time. Anyone who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities, the old adage goes. Elon Musk, Trump’s alter ego, has called for the impeachment of judges and the imprisonment of journalists. The pardoned ringleaders of the January 6 Capitol Hill attack have license to act as Trump’s militant troops. As political scientist Larry Diamond put it: “Fear now rules the land.”
Not many are prepared to risk their jobs or regulatory control. The wavering Republican senators have been brought into line by Musk’s apparent threats to spend millions to oust them. Those who know Trump’s worst instincts, like Barr, still support him. But new people are also in office. When things go wrong, Trump will be tempted to pass the point of no return. / Adapted from “Pamphlet” from “Financial Times”
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