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The leader of Hezbollah will speak on Friday about the Israel-Hamas war. What he says may determine whether the conflict spreads.
Lebanon is anxious ahead of Friday's expected speech by Hezbollah leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah on Israel's war in Gaza, which residents and experts fear could inflame regional tensions if he vows to escalate attacks against Israel.
Fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has escalated along their tense border in recent weeks. The Lebanese armed group claims to have lost 47 fighters, while Israel says six of its soldiers have been killed as well as six civilians.
However, some believe that Nasrallah may be preparing his constituents in southern Lebanon for an intensified conflict, although many worry that a war could upend their lives as it has in the past.
South Lebanon has historically suffered significantly more from Israeli aggression than any other region in the country, including a 15-year occupation by Israel between 1985 and 2000.
Violence between Israel and Hezbollah erupted shortly after Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israeli military posts and civilians on October 7. According to Israeli officials, about 1,400 people were killed. Israel has responded by relentlessly bombing Gaza and carrying out ground invasions. Gaza's Health Ministry says more than 9,000 Palestinians have been killed, including more than 3,000 children.
Many more are dying from Israel's suffocating siege, which some legal experts have said is a war crime under international law. After October 7, Israel completely blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other essential supplies into Gaza. While some aid trucks carrying food and medicine have been allowed to enter through the Rafah crossing with Egypt in recent days, Israel is still not allowing fuel into the enclave, hurting hospitals that need electricity to operate rescue machines.
Despite growing calls for a ceasefire, Israel has said it will not stop attacking Gaza until it eradicates Hamas, which forms a so-called "axis of resistance" with Hezbollah, other Shiite armed groups in the region and their sponsor Iran.
But analysts also say Nasrallah may be warning Israel to reconsider its target.
" I believe that Hezbollah ... sees this conflict as an existential conflict. They feel that if Israel succeeds in achieving its objectives in rooting out Hamas in the Gaza Strip, then they will come back and deal with what they they see it as a Hezbollah threat ," said Mohannad Hage Ali, a Lebanon expert with the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Hearts and minds
Hezbollah has struggled to regain support from the wider Sunni Arab world after it intervened in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad, an ally who belongs to a branch of Shiite Islam.
Al-Assad allowed Iranian weapons and goods to pass through his territory to reach Hezbollah in Lebanon. And during the height of the war, Hezbollah surrounded and starved civilians who opposed the Syrian regime.
Hezbollah's involvement belied its claim that its weapons were used exclusively to defend against Israeli aggression. But Nasrallah may now see the Gaza crisis as an opportunity to repair his image.
" This is Nasrallah's moment ," Hage Ali told Al Jazeera.
Millions of Arabs will watch his speech around the world. They will hear the only leader in the region who is able to speak to their anger and despair telling them that he will act and support the Palestinians in Gaza, who face an existential threat of expulsion.
Other Lebanese Sunni fighters are already cooperating with Hezbollah to target Israel. Mohamad, a resident of southern Lebanon, believed that many more Sunni Muslims would support Hezbollah if its battle with Israel intensified.
" Everything that happened in Syria was forgotten in just a few days [after the start of the war in Gaza] ," he told Al Jazeera.
A lot of waiting
Despite the anxiety of Lebanese residents, Palestinian refugees in the country said they would like Hezbollah to intensify attacks against Israel, which Nasrallah may authorize during his speech.
Ahed Bahr, a member of a Palestinian political party in Lebanon, told Al Jazeera that she hoped the images of dead Gaza children would force the "axis of resistance" to escalate against Israel on many fronts, including Lebanon.
" This is the opportunity to finally liberate Palestine ," he said from Sabra and Shatila, two neighborhoods that are home to a refugee camp in Lebanon's capital, Beirut. Arab nations can finally help Palestine, but most are doing nothing.
So will Hezbollah and its allies increase attacks on Israel?
Iran-backed fighters in Syria and Iraq are believed to be responsible for launching several missiles and drones at US assets and personnel in the region. The attacks appear to be in retaliation for US support for Israel's attacks on Gaza.
While no US service personnel have been killed, Washington has responded with airstrikes targeting fighters near the Syria-Iraq border. The US had also warned Hezbollah against escalating attacks against Israel.
" It feels like a big decision is coming from the 'axis of resistance.' This decision may come on Friday ," said Mohamad. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Aljazeera"
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