FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
While the world has its mind on Ukraine and Israel, will China attack Taiwan?
In a world shaken by two wars that absorb so much American and European attention, Xi Jinping follows the ancient saying that "a crisis must never be lost."
Above all, it is on the geopolitical front that Xi sees a world full of crises and therefore opportunities to seize. The closest to home is called Taiwan. Against this "rebel" island, the People's Republic is putting into practice the "anaconda strategy".
The term was used by the chief admiral of the Taiwanese military fleet, Tang Hua, in an interview with "Economist". Anaconda is a snake that crushes and strangles its prey. According to the admiral, for some time there has been an escalation of military operations with which the Chinese armed forces are behaving like an anaconda.
They begin to "conquer" the island, as part of a plan that could have different developments: it could be a prelude to a full-scale military attack, or it could force the island to surrender without having to fight. China has the distraction of the West on its side: too absorbed by the Middle East and Ukraine to pay attention to what is happening in the Far East and the consequences that the end of Taiwan's autonomy would have (besides the larger geopolitics and symbolic importance, 60% of microchips, essential to every sector of our economy, are still produced on that island).
Europe has little or no importance in that part of the world. America is less than a month away from an election, with an aging president overwhelmed by events; moreover, its arsenals have already been tested by aid given to Ukraine and Israel. Only in Japan is there a government that is taking action to address strategic challenges, but this is not enough. Taiwan itself contributes to the general distraction: the Taipei government is reluctant to provide its population with very detailed information on the growing Chinese military pressure, perhaps for fear of demoralizing citizens and depressing the local economy. There is also the suspicion that this is precisely one of Beijing's collateral objectives: to weaken the resistance, creating an atmosphere of inevitability.
Admiral Tang gives these numbers. From January to August this year, Chinese airstrikes over Taiwan increased more than fivefold, from 36 to 193 monthly strikes. The number of Chinese naval vessels circling the island has doubled, from 142 in January to 282 in August. These naval maneuvers are getting closer and closer to Taiwanese territory, until they reach 24 nautical miles from the beaches. The stay of Chinese warships is getting longer. Furthermore, the naval siege simulation extends to the eastern coasts of the island, whereas it used to be limited to the southern and western sides.
According to Admiral Tang, these provocations are also intended to "deceive us", to draw reactions from the Taiwanese defense forces, which would become the ideal pretext to trigger a full, watertight naval blockade. "We are exercising restraint, in order not to provoke an escalation", says the head of the navy in the interview.
Authorities in Taipei are also trying to work with allies — from America to Japan to Australia — to figure out how to keep lines of communication open in the event of a total naval blockade.
Geography doesn't help, because China's shores are close while its allies are further away. Geopolitics helps even less, given what is happening in Washington and elsewhere. The anaconda is patient, convinced that the prey cannot escape its grasp. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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