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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Today, although the financial system is much more complex, the challenges remain similar...
Rising debt, political tensions, and economic uncertainty are not new phenomena. Since ancient times, societies have faced similar cycles of crisis and response. In ancient Babylon, rulers used periodic debt forgiveness as a way to avoid social unrest and maintain stability. Today, although the financial system is much more complex, the challenges remain similar. Global debt is growing rapidly and is expected to reach record levels in the coming years, while factors such as geopolitical conflicts, turmoil in energy markets, and technological developments add to uncertainty. In this context, history offers six essential lessons.
1. Safe assets often turn out to be the riskiest
Financial crises do not always arise from risky investments, but often from those considered safer. Historical examples show that when confidence in these assets is shaken, the consequences are severe. In the 16th century, the default of European powers shook the continent's economy. In modern times, the crisis of 2007–08 was exacerbated by doubts about mortgage bonds that were considered safe. Even today, US Treasury bonds are the bedrock of the global financial system, and any swings in confidence in them can have far-reaching consequences.
2. Financial bubbles can also have positive consequences
Although bubbles often end in crises, they can also create important economic developments. Massive investments in railroad construction in the United States during the 19th century led to a profound industrial and economic transformation, even though they ended in financial collapses. This phenomenon shows that large investments, even when associated with risks and losses, can leave behind long-term infrastructure and development. Today, a similar situation is being discussed for investments in artificial intelligence.
3. Financial leverage remains a major risk
The use of debt to increase profits is a widespread practice, but it often turns into a destabilizing factor. The repo market, which is used for short-term financing with collateral, has become a key component of the global financial system. However, history shows that when this market freezes, as in 2008, the consequences are immediate and severe. The continued growth of this market makes it a potential source of crisis even today.
4. Financial complexity increases risk
The development of increasingly complex financial instruments is often intended to manage risk, but can have the opposite effect. Credit derivatives, originally created as a form of insurance, contributed significantly to the 2008 crisis. Even today, similar products such as synthetic risk transfers are on the rise and remain difficult to fully understand, increasing the possibility that risks are hidden within the system.
5. Many modern developments have historical precedents
Today’s financial innovations are not entirely new. The debates over cryptocurrencies and stablecoins bear similarities to earlier periods, such as the era of free banking in the US, when the monetary system was fragmented and often unstable. The lack of regulation and trust led to major banking crises. This shows that technology can change the forms, but not always the nature, of risks.
6. New crises arise from solutions to old crises
Measures taken to stabilize the financial system often create new risks. The savings and loan crisis in the US at the end of the 20th century contributed to the developments that led to the global crisis of 2008. Even the regulations after that crisis have shifted risky activities to less regulated sectors, such as hedge funds and the “shadow banking” system. This shows that risks do not disappear, but are transformed.
History shows that financial crises are cyclical and often predictable in nature. Studying the past helps to understand current risks and avoid making the same mistakes. As has often been pointed out, those who do not know history risk repeating it./Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "Financial Times"
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Once upon a time...fillojne perrallat! Nje nga te "sapo pashaportizuarit" te ishullit te Costa Rica, pa patur as me te voglen njohuri per mua personalisht, me detyroi qe per vite te mesoja matematike. Mua nuk me pelqen te tregohem e ditur por edhe modestia e tepruar eshte mendjemadhesi. Krizat financiare ne bote realizohen nga mendjet qe analizojne faktorin risk si te ishte guri ne kutine e tavulles ose ne ruleten e casino.. Pra le ta hedhim dge ta shohim se cdo te nxjerre. Dhe ky i " sapo pashaportizuar" ne ishullin e tij ishte nhe sipermarres i tipit Musk, Gates, Epstein..etj. Ne USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, etj organizohet cdo vit lloraria e emigracionit, pra studimet per planifikim dhe zbatim jane te percaktuara qarte mbi keto burime njerezore qe perbejne shtesen e popullsise. Pra risku psh. ne real estate me ndertime me mbi 30% mbi normen e kerkeses eshte i justifikuar. Por midis emigrimit dhe imigrimit ka nje diference te jashtezakonshme. Ideja e "zarit" te hedhur ose me sakte i mesimit te matematikes, mbas krizes 2008 te "Lehmann Brothers " ishte si te thuash ndryshimi i emrit te partise se Ilir Metes, nga Levizja Socialiste per Integrim ne Partine e Lirise. Nga koncepti matematikor Musk qe eshte me shkolle te mesme dhe billionaires nuk e ka idene e Integrimit ose Integralit. Pra ne sistemet integruese, nqs nuk zgjidh shumen e derivative ti nuk ke zgjidhje! Pse??! Sepse financial bubbles krijohen nga keta lloj tipash qe zhvillojne vetem nje kulture specifike re " shumes se billions " e marre e gatshme, shabllon pa e pershtatur dhe pa e vrare trurin te zgjidhesh situaten e krizave. Dhe partia e Metes nga partia e shumes se derivateve kaloi ne partine e lirise se derivateve, pra "money gives you the freedom". Ne situaten krizave te financial bubbles, shpesh kjo kategori individesh, mund ti gjesh edhe ne Forbes, reagojne me panic, fillojne te ulerasin per gjetjen e fajtorit, duke fituar kohe per zhvendosjen e financial bubbles ne nje destinacion tjeter, mund te kryejne nje proteste, krim, show ose gjithcka tjeter per te fituar kohe ose per te terhequr vemendjen nga Risku qe po afrohet ose eshte gati te pelcase financial bubbles, ku firma me e qarte eshte sektori i ndertimit ne Shqiperi. Por ne nuk jemi USA te organize loteri per imigrim, dmth te sjellim qindra mijera individe te jetojne bubble dream te Portorikanit, qe ne ishullin e tij jeton me idhullin e Riki Martin...Uroj qe te kenaqet me " Vivi la vida Loca".. kjo per billionaires me matematike te kufizuar, ndersa per working people, ehhh,bejme nje rikthim ne BBF e 2008 dhe do jemi setish ne kerkim te ndonje bubble ideas...Te shohim partia e Metes, si do quhet tani pas burgut, Free Meta apo Burger room