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The events surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine have overshadowed what is happening to Russia itself. It is in the Russian criminal underground that tectonic movements are taking place, says Mark Galeotti, historian and expert on Russian secret services and organized crime.
The Russian state is increasingly relying on the services of criminal networks, according to Galeotti's research report "Troubled Times: The Russian Underground After Invasion of Ukraine," which the University of London professor published this week as part of the project: Global Initiative Against Transnational Criminal Organizations".
Members of criminal groups in the service of Russia - man in military uniform striking a pose in front of an army jeepMembers of criminal groups in the service of Russia - man in military dress posing in front of an army jeep
According to him, organized crime in Russia, before the invasion of Russian troops, was connected to gangs in Ukraine and together with them formed the largest criminal groups in Europe. But the war destroyed those ties. "By February 2022, Russian and Ukrainian criminal groups formed the most powerful criminal ecosystem in Europe and controlled a lucrative smuggling route between Russia and Western Europe," Galeotti quoted from another report titled "Global Initiatives." After the start of the war, some of the leading figures of the Russian underground joined the private army "Wagner".
The winners and losers of the war
The war changed the entire status quo and above all the balance of power between certain groups, writes Galeotti: "The main winners were structures linked to Belarus, Armenia and Central Asia, while the losers include large transnational criminal networks such as , Solntsevskaya and Tambovskaya groups". These are the two most famous mafia structures in Russia. The first comes from Moscow and the second from Saint Petersburg. Thus, alternative trade and smuggling routes have now become more important. Some countries in the Middle and Central East, as well as Asia and Turkey stand out, says Galeotti. "Maybe it's not a good fight at all for Russian gangsters, but that's not true for everyone," writes this researcher.
The links between Vladimir Putin's Russian state and Russia's underworld are cynically based on mutual aid, explains Mark Galeotti. For example, criminal structures are increasingly involved in the procurement of microchips and other technologies needed by the Russian defense industry. In his report, Galeotti quotes a Europol official: "If you help smuggle microchips, the FSB can turn a blind eye when it comes to drug trafficking, human trafficking, etc."
In other words: what the state does not want or cannot do on its own, it leaves to the people of the criminal environment. In addition to the procurement of sanctioned goods, this segment also includes simpler espionage, assassinations and intimidation of the Kremlin's enemies, especially abroad. He says: "I'm afraid that more of these things will happen to put pressure on Russians from the diaspora."
Criminals in the service of the state
The other role of criminal groups is to serve as custodians of "black funds" for shadow government divisions. After the start of the war and Russia's isolation from the West, Russian state actors "found it difficult to finance operations in Europe," Galeotti explains. The lines between the criminal underworld and state institutions are becoming increasingly blurred and less relevant. The Russian state must increasingly rely on such services. Examples include the "state" export of Ukrainian grain from the occupied territories or the sale of oil that circumvents the Western embargo by using tankers that turn off their transponders.
Dramatic increase in crimes in Russia
At the same time, Mark Galeotti found that the number of crimes in Russia, especially those involving the use of violence, is increasing dramatically. This is confirmed by the official statistics of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, which show a 30 percent increase in 2022 alone - even if some of them seem unbelievable, such as the surprisingly low crime rate in Chechnya and other republics of the North Caucasus, Galeotti points out. It is significant that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs recently decided not to publish such statistics anymore.
"If Putin decided to fight organized crime, he would still have the strength to do so," says Galeotti, noting that the Russian state currently shows no such interest. At the same time, problems related to crime are growing in Russian society, for example, the number of war veterans joining the criminal environment is also increasing.
Finally, Galeotti identifies two main dangers that, according to him, have loomed over Russia: what he calls "Donbasizim", that is, a state mafia. He believes that the term "mafia state" is a journalistic cliché and is convinced that it does not capture the "total complexity of the system" in Russia. He suggests comparing modern Russia to a medieval monarchy, where rival sons fought for the emperor's favor and where "the letter of the law has far less value than pragmatic alliances"./ DW
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