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A secret US intelligence report casts doubt on Donald Trump's strategy towards Iran, warning that even a large-scale military attack is unlikely to topple the regime in Tehran or bring about an immediate change of power...
A secret report by the US National Intelligence Council concludes that even a large-scale military attack against Iran is unlikely to topple the deep military and religious structure that supports the Islamic Republic.
According to a Washington Post report, citing three people familiar with the document's contents, the analysis reinforces suspicions within the US intelligence community about President Donald Trump's plan to weaken the Iranian leadership and create the conditions for a new direction closer to US interests.
The report, completed about a week before the start of the US and Israeli military operations on February 28, analyzed various scenarios related to possible strikes on the Iranian leadership. According to the document, even in the event of a limited operation against the political elite or a broader attack on state institutions, Iran's military and religious establishment is expected to react by activating mechanisms that guarantee the continuity of power.
In this context, the report estimates that even in the event of the elimination of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime's institutions would activate procedures foreseen to ensure a controlled transition of power.
Little chance of a change of power
The document also considers it unlikely that the Iranian opposition, which is fragmented, will succeed in taking control of the country. This assessment comes from the National Intelligence Council, a body that includes senior analysts and summarizes the assessments of 18 US intelligence agencies.
The CIA referred questions about the matter to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. Meanwhile, the White House has not clarified whether President Trump was briefed on the analysis before approving the military operation.
Since the beginning of the conflict, military operations have expanded in several directions, including naval operations with submarines in the Indian Ocean and missile interceptions near Turkey, a NATO member country.
The White House's stance
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly stated that the Trump administration has clearly defined the objectives of the military operation called "Epic Fury".
According to her, the goals include:
-destruction of Iranian ballistic missiles and their production capacities,
weakening of Iranian naval forces,
-preventing Tehran's ability to arm allied organizations in the region, and ultimately preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
-Kelly also added that, according to the US administration, "the Iranian regime is facing intense pressure" from military operations.
Assessments and questions
According to analysts, the report's conclusions are based on an in-depth analysis of the structure of the Iranian political system. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said that the prediction of the stability of Iranian institutions reflects a long-standing knowledge of the mechanisms of power in the country.
However, the report does not appear to have analyzed other scenarios, such as sending US ground troops to Iran or supporting an uprising through ethnic groups, such as the Iranian Kurds.
Meanwhile, according to reports, the potential succession process in the Iranian leadership appears to have been set in motion under the pressure of an intense air and naval bombing campaign by the United States and Israel. / Pamphlet
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