FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The US decision to allow Ukraine to strike with US weapons deep into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly belligerent statements, Reuters writes.
But Russia is likely to expand a sabotage campaign against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kiev, said two senior officials, a lawmaker and two congressional aides briefed on the matter.
A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded that nuclear escalation is unlikely to occur from the decision to lift restrictions on the use of US weapons by Ukraine. That view has not changed since the US changed its stance this month on the weapons, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"The ratings were consistent. ATACMs would not change Russia's nuclear calculations,” said a congressional aide briefed on intelligence, referring to US missiles with a range of up to 190 miles.
Russia's launch of a new ballistic missile last week, which analysts say was intended as a warning to Washington and its European allies, has not changed that conclusion.
One of the five US officials said that while Washington appreciated that Russia would not try to escalate its nuclear forces, it would try to adapt to what it sees as US escalation. The official said the fielding of the new missile was part of that effort.
U.S. officials said the intelligence has helped steer an often divisive debate in recent months within the Biden administration over the use of U.S. long-range weapons inside Russian territory.
Officials initially opposed such a move, citing concerns of escalation and uncertainty about how Putin would respond. Some of these officials, including the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department, feared deadly retaliation against US military and diplomatic personnel and attacks on NATO allies.
Others were particularly concerned about nuclear escalation. Biden changed his mind because of North Korea's entry into the war before the US presidential election, US officials said.
Some officials now believe that concerns about escalation, including nuclear fears, were overblown, but stress that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous and that nuclear escalation is not out of the question. Russia's ability to find other covert ways to retaliate against the West remains a concern.
"Russia's hybrid response is a concern," said Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, referring to Russian sabotage in Europe.
"The possibility of escalation was not very close. The concern now is greater.”
The White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the intelligence assessments.
Lini një Përgjigje