FLASH
Shkruar nga Federico Rampini
It was the invasion of Poland by Hitler and Stalin that caused World War II.
Poland has detected a violation of its airspace by Russian drones and invoked NATO's 'Article 4' on the day Ursula von der Leyen delivers her State of the Union address. The Trump administration is also pushing for Europeans to join it in imposing massive sanctions on China and India to punish their fossil fuel purchases from Moscow, raising the threat of an escalation in the economic war against Putin.
The Ukrainian front is thus experiencing a new escalation in every sense, militarily and diplomatically, expanding, including the European Union more closely.
The Russian drone incursion into the skies over Poland reported today also has precedents dating back to the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A detailed list of these incidents can be found on Wikipedia, for example, under "Non-combat airspace violations during the Russian invasion of Ukraine."
As can be seen, Russian forces have been repeatedly "intruding" into NATO airspace, not only with drones, but also with missiles, fighter-bombers and military helicopters. In addition to Poland, many other countries on the Eastern Front have been violated, including Romania, Hungary and Croatia. Recently, however, there seems to have been an increase in these drone incidents in Poland, with a rapid increase in recent days.
On September 4, two Russian drones entered Polish airspace during an attack in western Ukraine. On September 8, a drone with Cyrillic script was shot down near the Belarus-Poland border. On the night of September 8–9, multiple Russian drones (up to eight) entered Polish airspace near Zamość. Polish authorities, together with US and allied forces, raised radar and defense alert; airports in Warsaw, Rzeszów, and Lublin were temporarily closed.
The September 9-10 incursion is certainly not the first of its kind, but it seems to be one of the most serious to date. Hence the invocation of NATO’s Article 4. However, this action is not unprecedented. In addition to February 24, 2022, the day when the full-scale war in Ukraine began (when Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia invoked Article 4), the Polish government had done so once before, on March 3, 2014, during previous tensions with Russia (the year of the annexation of Crimea).
Poland confirms its position as a key country in the new European geopolitics. Or perhaps it is a return to the old ways, to the starting point: it was the invasion of Poland by Hitler and Stalin that triggered World War II. During the Cold War, after decades of oppression by Moscow, Poland was the first part of the Eastern Bloc to crumble: with the strikes of the free trade union Solidarnosc in the Gdansk shipyards, under the leadership of Lech Walesa and with the “external support” of Pope John Paul II. And today, it is no coincidence that Poland is the country that spends the highest percentage of its GDP on defense, among all NATO members: more than the United States itself.
With the admission of two former neutral countries, Sweden and Finland, to NATO, Warsaw has become the geopolitical hub of a Northeast Axis: where the greatest awareness of the threat of Russian expansionism is concentrated.
This escalation of tension has not left Donald Trump indifferent. The illusion that the American president had nurtured during the summit with Putin in Alaska seems to be disappearing quickly. The White House's tone towards Moscow is hardening again, undoubtedly influenced by Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubbio, who has never been a Russophile. The Financial Times predicted Trump's latest move in the new escalation of economic threats: he asked the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on India and China, as part of a joint effort to increase pressure on Russia. The president reportedly made this extraordinary request after joining a meeting on Tuesday between senior American and European officials gathered in Washington to discuss how to increase the economic cost of the war on Moscow.
Such a drastic step, however, would violate the fragile consensus built in various meetings in Geneva, London and Stockholm between the US and Chinese delegations. It could provoke a reaction from Beijing that would include a further slowdown in exports of rare earth magnets. It is not clear whether Trump is really willing to take that risk.
The events on the Ukrainian front suggest that we should open our eyes to the uncomfortable truth that Ursula von der Leyen confronted in her State of the Nation address: European rearmament is vital, necessitated by the growing dangers around us. Since this rearmament is often criticized as an unbearable sacrifice, a sacrifice that would make Europe poorer by denying resources to social services, it is worth remembering that the “butter or guns” dilemma is deceptive./ Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Corriere Della Sera”
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