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Putin announced a temporary ceasefire on the occasion of Easter. While the Kremlin is not ready for a month-long ceasefire stopping attacks, with the latest announcement, Putin hopes to put pressure on Brussels by playing on the White House's desire to see the conflict end with a limited gesture of compromise.
There seems to be some confusion about where the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire talks stand. Let's break down the details.
Some say that Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply trying to weaken US President Donald Trump's support for Kiev and does not actually want peace at all.
Others say Putin agreed to the 30-day ceasefire deal proposed by the White House but has since ignored it, continuing to target Ukraine's energy assets as well as urban areas like last week's attacks in Sumy and Dnipro where dozens of civilians were injured or killed.
But the reality is much simpler.
Trump has made his deal with Putin, and an extremely soft one at that. The White House dropped two of the big negotiating points — Ukraine’s NATO membership is definitively off the table and Ukraine would have to accept territories occupied by Russia — even before talks began in Riyadh on February 18.
Putin accepted these gifts, but when the horse-trading began on March 25, he came up with a long list of specific conditions – demands that Trump has also almost universally implemented.
In the last few hours, Putin announced a temporary ceasefire for Easter. While the Kremlin is not ready for a month-long ceasefire halting the attacks, with the latest announcement, Putin hopes to put pressure on Brussels by playing on the White House's desire to see the conflict end with a limited gesture of compromise.
The movement will also have a positive impact in Russia, as for Orthodox believers, Easter is the most important holiday in the Christian calendar.
This is an all-or-nothing moment for Putin. It was always clear that the White House team favors Russia even before the talks began. Putin should make the most of this moment, while Trump is ready to talk. He will never have a better opportunity than this to restore Russia's relationship with the US. When Trump finally leaves office, it is guaranteed that "normal" politics will resume and the US will become hostile towards Russia again.
Putin must achieve two things: he must lift sanctions and obtain international recognition of Russia's sovereignty over the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Unless sanctions are lifted or eased, they will likely remain in place for decades or longer. If Russia’s sovereignty over the five regions it currently controls is compromised, then there is a possibility that war could break out again with a post-Trump administration rearming Ukraine, which will be rearming in the meantime with European help.
Confusion of the ceasefire agreement
Putin's conditions for the agreements he has reached are key to understanding the Kremlin's position. In the new grain deal on March 25, the Kremlin agreed to guarantee maritime security only if the conditions were met.
The White House's reading after the conclusion of those talks was vague, but alluded to "assistance" to Russia, while the Kremlin had made it clear that the agreement would only enter into force if the US:
Lifts sanctions on the Russian agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and related financial institutions to allow international trade in food and fertilizers, including access to SWIFT and correspondent banks;
Eliminates restrictions on trade finance transactions;
Lift sanctions on companies that produce and export food and fertilizers and allow insurers to cover these shipments;
Lifts port service and transport sanctions for Russian-flagged vessels involved in the food and fertilizer trade;
Ending restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery and related goods to Russia for the production of food and fertilizers;
Trump agreed to these, but in the case of lifting banking sanctions, specifically Rosselkhozbank, he cannot act unilaterally. The EU must lift its banking sanctions in parallel and has refused to do so.
Likewise, in the 30-day ceasefire agreement, Putin insisted that some kind of effective and independent monitoring system be established.
While Zelensky has unconditionally agreed to both agreements, Putin has agreed to both in principle, but not in practice, and has yet to implement them.
Rubio begins the countdown
Trump has made his deal with Putin – at least on the big things needed to end hostilities. His problem now is getting Brussels and Kiev to play along.
Notably, Trump has not exerted any pressure on the Kremlin to compromise to remove any of his conditionality, other than some vague statements about imposing tariffs on Russia if there is no deal.
Conversely, the White House just massively increased pressure on Europe after Rubio told gathered EU leaders that the US would walk away from the Ukraine problem if a deal was not reached by the end of April.
Shumë pak detaje dolën nga bisedimet e Rubios, por qartazi ata po flisnin për kushtet e marrëveshjeve të Trump me Putinin. Një detaj që u publikua është se ekipi amerikan tha se një marrëveshje për monitorimin e armëpushimit ishte afër arritjes, gjë që është një nga kërkesat e Putinit. Rubio tha gjithashtu në mënyrë specifike se u diskutua lehtësimi i sanksioneve, por duket se është bërë pak përparim. I dërguari i posaçëm për Lindjen e Mesme Steve Witkoff tha gjithashtu se Ukraina do të duhet të heqë dorë nga pesë rajonet e saj – Krimea e aneksuar në 2014 plus katër rajonet e aneksuara në 2023 – në çdo marrëveshje armëpushimi. Duket se Rubio i ka dhënë BE-së një ultimatum: është rruga ime apo autostrada.
Ky do të jetë një problem. Ndërsa është e mundur të shihet një lloj zgjidhje kompromisi për problemin e monitorimit, BE-ja ka refuzuar të mendojë për lehtësimin e sanksioneve derisa Forcat e Armatosura të Rusisë (AFR) të largohen plotësisht nga Ukraina. Dhe Zelensky ka qenë i qartë: Bankova (ekuivalenti i Ukrainës i Kremlinit) nuk do të pranojë sovranitetin e asnjë prej territoreve të saj në asnjë rrethanë. "Është një vijë e kuqe," shpjegoi ai javën e kaluar.
Tani ora po troket. Në vend që të ushtrojë presion ndaj Kremlinit për të bërë një marrëveshje më të arsyeshme, Trump thjesht ka pranuar pozicionin e Putinit dhe në vend të kësaj po ushtron presion maksimal mbi Brukselin për të pranuar pozicionin e tij. Dhe pasi ai e ka bërë të qartë se nuk është i interesuar për negociatat e zgjatura – marrëveshja e tij me Iranin tani është në ecje të plotë pasi Witkoff u takua indirekt me ministrin e jashtëm të Iranit në Romë këtë fundjavë – ai thjesht do të largohet nga Ukraina, duke i dorëzuar të gjitha furnizimet me armë dhe fondet në Bruksel për të përballuar vetë nëse nuk bien dakord.
Në këtë pikë ka të ngjarë që si BE ashtu edhe Bankova të refuzojnë. BE-ja është nën udhëheqjen e Presidentes së Komisionit Evropian, Ursula von der Leyen, e cila ka mbajtur një qëndrim parimor kundër pushtimit rus që në ditën e parë të pushtimit. Zelensky gjithashtu e ka vënë veten në një cep, pasi ka mbajtur gjithashtu një qëndrim maksimalist pas një periudhe gatishmërie për kompromis në vitin e parë të luftës. Nëse BE-ja ka mjetet për të mbajtur vetë të gjithë barrën e konfliktit të Ukrainës, mbetet një pyetje e hapur, por Rubio e ka bërë të qartë se Shtëpia e Bardhë nuk do të bëjë më kompromise.
Marrëveshjet e biznesit
Ukraina ka një problem të veçantë, por të lidhur. Ajo po detyrohet në një marrëveshje të ashpër minerale me SHBA-në që është përshkruar si "më e keqe se dëmshpërblimet". Bankova tashmë ka hedhur poshtë të katër versionet e paraqitura deri më tani, sepse kushtet ishin kaq të ashpra dhe presidenti ukrainas Volodymyr Zelensky tha se ato gjithashtu minojnë sovranitetin e Ukrainës dhe mund të rrezikojnë ofertën e saj për anëtarësim në BE.
But Trump has made it clear that if Ukraine wants any U.S. support, Zelensky will have to sign next week. Ukraine signed a memorandum of intent to make the mineral deal on April 18, but the memorandum was void of any detail. A final agreement must be signed by April 26, the White House said. Few details of the fifth version of the deal have been released, and while some of the terms have reportedly been softened, it appears that the terms remain as tough as before, making it highly likely that Bankova will continue to oppose the latest version.
Here's another aspect where Trump clearly favors Russia. Since the beginning of the process, Rubio has said on multiple occasions that there is a "historic opportunity" to do business with Russia if a ceasefire agreement is reached.
Putin has made it clear that he is open to a business deal and, among other things, has suggested that the US invest in Russian rare earth metals (REM), America use Russia’s frozen $5 billion reserves at the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and opens the door to the return of Western companies. For their part, the US team has said they are interested in jointly developing Russian oil and gas deposits in the Arctic. The head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, has been asked to work out the details on a “parallel track” to the Riyadh ceasefire talks. Business deals will go ahead, that much is clear, but only after a ceasefire agreement is reached.
It seems that it is the billions that the US stands to gain from these deals that are Trump's motivation for going soft on Russia. The Ukraine minerals deal is more or less worthless since Ukraine does not have trillions of dollars in rare earth metals, and what strategically important minerals it does have would require billions of dollars in investment to exploit. But Trump is insisting on making this deal anyway.
Everything will depend on what Bankova and Brussels decide in the next two weeks, but there is a growing possibility that there will be a final split between Europe and the US over the Ukraine conflict, which will also be bad news for Putin, as any chance he has of getting rid of sanctions and normalizing relations with the US will also disappear. / Adapted Pamphlet from IntellNews /
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