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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
A dual objective was articulated in Washington: to rebuild a front of countries troubled by trade tensions and to create a control mechanism over the supply chain of critical raw materials. The February 4 ministerial meeting, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and overseen by Vice President JD Vance, brought together dozens of countries, with the European Commission in the room. When the US organizes a summit on a technical topic, it usually aims to build a governance architecture.
Participants included current or potential producers from Africa and Asia, advanced industrial consumers from the G7 and OECD, and suppliers such as Canada and Australia. Many of them have agreements with China under the “Silk Road,” which shows that existing dependencies are not easily undone.
The American thesis is that the market for critical minerals is not functioning properly, because low and unstable prices discourage investment in “friendly” countries. The implicit objective is China’s dominance in extraction, processing and refining, as well as its ability to influence prices. Washington’s response is not limited to opening new mines, but aims to create rules and incentives that orient investments according to strategic priorities. This constitutes an industrial policy presented as a security policy.
The replacement of the previous partnership with FORGE (Forum for Geostrategic Engagement on Resources) signals a more selective and hierarchical approach. The aim is to turn the alliance into concrete projects, investments and acceleration of procedures. The EU may soon reach a memorandum with the US on supply chains, but faces the dilemma of how to preserve industrial sovereignty while avoiding a new dependency.
The idea of a guaranteed minimum price for minerals is intended to support investment, but it increases costs for processing industries, such as automotive and technology. Without vertical integration between mining, refining and production, there is a risk that “mica” raw materials will simply become more expensive, without creating real alternatives.
Even the strategic stockpile project – with long-term loans and reserves of rare earths for industry – offers time, but does not solve the structural dependency, especially if refining remains the main obstacle.
Essentially, FORGE represents a power move: the US aims to build a preferential zone of producers and consumers to reduce exposure to China. But this will only work if it delivers tangible benefits and preserves the competitiveness of allied industries. Otherwise, many countries will continue to balance between the two systems in an increasingly tense geoeconomic climate.
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