FLASH
Shkruar nga Amrita Jash
On January 19 this year, during the inauguration of 35 infrastructure projects of the Border Roads Organization (BRO) in Uttarakhand, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh stated that "Climate change in the country is not just a weather-related phenomenon. , but this issue is related to national security".
Singh made this strong statement without mentioning China by name, but noted among other things: “In recent years, several border states like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Union Territories (UTs) like Ladakh have seen an increase in the number of natural disasters. The Himalayas also extend to other states, but such incidents are limited to only a few states, and we cannot ignore this fact."
However, the allusion is very clear as these states border the Tibet region, and are the areas where the actual line of control between India and China lies: the western sector (Aksai Chin in the Ladakh region), the middle sector (Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and eastern sector (Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh).
Singh also claimed that India's Ministry of Defense has taken this situation very seriously, and will seek help from friendly countries to study and rule out any involvement of any enemy country in this matter. The term 'enemy' itself is self-explanatory as India has very strained relations with China.
Earlier, some Indian regions have openly speculated about Chinese interference. In 2018, the state government of Assam claimed that despite the lack of massive rainfall, the state experienced heavy flooding, and blamed China's interference in the natural ecosystem in Tibet. The question that arises is: Is China modifying the weather or not? In 2020, the State Council issued a circular stating that China will possess a developed weather modification system by 2025, and the total operating area of artificial precipitation (snowfall) will reach over 5.5 million square kilometers.
By 2035, weather modification in China should reach an advanced level worldwide in terms of operation, technologies and services. In June 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) convened for a meeting on weather modification experiments.
That meeting praised China's operational power for large-scale and effective weather modification through a comprehensive system. While it is difficult to gauge China's exact intentions, what is certain is that Beijing is very serious about its weather modification goals.
It is important to note that the World Meteorological Organization does not advocate weather modification practices, as 'weather as a weapon' has been used in the past. During the Vietnam War, as part of Operation Popeye, the US used cloud seeding techniques to induce heavy rainfall. The aim was to prolong the monsoon season and flood the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the main route that enemy fighters were using to distribute their supplies.
Then in 1976, the United Nations adopted the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Other Hostile Uses of Environmental Modification (ENMOD), which prohibits states from engaging in military or other hostile use of environmental modification techniques that have a wide and long-term spread or cause serious effects as a means of destroying, damaging or injuring another State Party.
Today, 78 countries are part of this convention. The remarks of the Indian Minister of Defense on "climate as a parameter of national security" are justified. India's concerns about China's intentions and actions are based on the following reasons:
First, China is not bound by the non-weather manipulation norm, as Beijing is not a signatory to the ENMOD convention. In 2005, Beijing agreed that the Convention would apply only to China's special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau.
Second, China has already proven its capabilities with weather modification practices during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2014 APEC summit, National Day parades, the 2021 Chinese Communist Party centenary celebration, the Games Winter Olympics in 2022, etc. The Chinese newspaper South China Morning Post reported that a recent study found that artificial rain reduced PM2.5 levels by more than two-thirds and improved air quality from "moderate" to "good". .
Third, China runs the largest weather modification program today. Since 1949, China has continuously made developments in weather modification, whether through the establishment of the China Meteorological Institute in 1978; passing its first weather modification law in 2002; the 2005 addition of weather as a major factor in his five-year plans; spending $1.34 billion in 2012-2017 to support the weather modification program, activating the largest weather control device to be deployed on the Tibetan Plateau since 2018, and more.
Fourth, given its proximity to India, China's construction of fuel combustion chambers in the Tibetan Plateau to artificially increase rainfall raises concerns for India and the rest of South Asia. As the "South China Morning Post" reported, more than 500 such burners have already been placed on the alpine slopes in Tibet, Xinjiang and other areas for experimental use.
While it is difficult to predict the potential and immediate effects of China's cloud seeding operations on the Tibetan Plateau, India should be vigilant. It should monitor China's weather control activities on the Tibetan Plateau to avoid undue risks from cloud seeding practices.
Since weather has historically been used as a weapon in warfare, India must assess the geopolitical and strategic implications of China's activities and develop its expertise to mitigate the effects of man-made disasters caused by weather modification./ Adapted Pamphlet from Eurasia Review "
Note: Amrita Jash, Assistant/Professor in the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy, India.
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