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Rebel attacks and internal tensions expose weaknesses in Russian strategy...
Russia is facing limitations on its ambitions to be a global power, while recent developments in Mali have highlighted its weaknesses on the ground.
When Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group arrived in Mali five years ago, their presence was intended to demonstrate Moscow's new role in Africa, as a rapid and successful projection of military power.
However, recent rebel attacks, which led to the death of Mali's Defense Minister, Sadio Camara, and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the contested city of Kidal, have not only shown the limits of Russian influence, but have also fueled open disagreements within the Russian government itself.
Since 2021, around 2,000 Russian mercenaries have supported the military junta led by Assimi Goïta in this West African country, fighting both the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) group and the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA), a separatist movement of the Tuareg community in the north of the country.
In recent days, the two groups have launched coordinated attacks, including a suicide bombing and a drone-supported ground operation that led to the retaken of Kidal, a city that had been a symbolic victory for the Russians three years earlier.
Although the JNIM-FLA alliance is not expected to take power, there are already serious doubts about the sustainability of the Goïta regime.
Russian forces in Mali are part of the Africa Corps, a structure created to replace Wagner's operations on the continent after the failed 2023 rebellion in Russia. Unlike Wagner, which was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Africa Corps is under the direct control of Russian military intelligence (GRU).
Partly due to a lack of flexibility and partly due to Moscow's focus on the war in Ukraine, this structure is having difficulty repeating its previous successes. In 2023, a small team of military trainers was sent to Niger, while in general there has been a gradual withdrawal of Russia from Africa. Negotiations with Sudan for a naval base have been suspended.
These developments are part of a broader process. Russia continues to find trading partners in Africa, attracted by cheap oil and fertilizers, as well as anti-Western rhetoric. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising global prices have strengthened its position in this regard.
However, Moscow is being forced to give up its ambition to be a global power. In Latin America, allies like Venezuela and Cuba are facing pressure to normalize relations with the United States. Meanwhile, in Syria, the transformation of Russian bases into joint training centers is being discussed, while the military presence in Armenia and Tajikistan is being reduced.
In Transnistria, the separatist region of Moldova, Russian forces are isolated and shrinking. These developments are directly related to the priority that President Vladimir Putin has given to the war in Ukraine, shifting human and military resources to the front.
Russia's previous success in Africa was also linked to the withdrawal of Western forces, as in the case of Mali after France's departure. However, recent developments pose a challenge for Moscow and have increased internal tensions.
The Africa Corps has blamed “Ukrainian and European mercenaries” for recent failures, while Russian correspondents have accused Western media outlets of providing information support to rebel groups. Behind the scenes, the GRU has expressed dissatisfaction with the Russian Foreign Ministry, accusing it of downplaying successes and exaggerating losses.
Some generals are questioning whether forces in Africa should be pulled back closer to Russian territory. Meanwhile, state media has avoided extensive coverage of these developments.
Although these developments do not directly affect Putin's control over the country, they point to growing tensions within the Russian elite and an accumulation of challenges in the context of the four-year war in Ukraine. /Adapted from The iPapers /
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