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Trump and the billions after the Ukraine-Russia "peace"...
The motives for the Donald Trump administration's recent diplomatic twists in relations with Russia are now clearly emerging.
There are two main aspects: the management of oil sanctions and the US's opening line towards recognizing some Ukrainian territories forcibly annexed by Russia in recent years.
On both fronts, the interests of a significant group of large American investors, in close cooperation with Washington and in coordination with the Kremlin, are becoming increasingly apparent. Thus, alongside the conflict over the war, a kind of oligarchic business system is being formed, where Trump's America seems to be almost inspired by the Russian model.
Sale of Lukoil and assets outside Russia
A sign that something fundamental is changing in business between Russians and Americans, not just in politics, became apparent last week through a quietly made announcement.
For the second time, the Trump administration has extended the deadline for the sale of the foreign operations of the Russian private group Lukoil, from December 13 to January 17. The first deadline had already been set for November 21 and was postponed at the last moment.
There is considerable wealth at stake. In addition to trading offices in Switzerland and Singapore, Lukoil owns key stakes in major oil fields in Iraq (West Qurna 2), Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mexico, as well as a refinery in Bulgaria and a distribution network in Finland, among other properties. The commercial value of this portfolio, under normal conditions, would be estimated at around $22 billion.
Low prices and the place of sanctions
But these are not normal conditions. The US sanctions regime has forced Lukoil to sell its operations outside Russia on a tight deadline, and the lack of time is forcing the group to accept offers well below its real value. Assets worth around $22 billion could be sold at much lower prices, essentially a kind of “war expropriation” similar to what the Kremlin imposed on Western companies that withdrew from Russia in 2022. From McDonald’s restaurants to Volkswagen plants to beer brands under InBev, the assets of Americans and Europeans were forcibly transferred to Kremlin-favored oligarchs for half or less of their real value.
The interest of American groups
Today, something similar is happening, but in the opposite direction. A series of large American groups, and not only, with strong ties to the Trump White House are circling around the "trophy" of Lukoil's assets outside Russia.
The list includes major American energy companies, especially Exxon Mobil and Chevron, but also the energy group MOL, a national champion in Hungary under Viktor Orban, who is also a close ally of both Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Equity Carlyle and Trump
A crucial development occurred about two weeks ago during a dinner between Trump himself and David Rubenstein, founder and CEO of the major American private equity fund Carlyle. Rubenstein, who worked in Jimmy Carter’s Democratic administration but has cultivated strong relationships with Republican leaders through Carlyle for decades, expressed interest in Lukoil’s holdings.
It seems highly likely that Trump stopped the "clock" of the sales process to give Carlyle time to prepare its offer.
It doesn't matter if conflicts of interest are visible everywhere: in addition to being an investor, Rubenstein is also an influential commentator on politics and economics for Bloomberg. But "Russian-style" oligarchic relationships seem to be dominating the business world around Donald Trump.
Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and American data centers
Another area where this pattern is apparent is around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Currently under the control of Russian forces, although half of the power is shared with independent Ukraine, Trump envoys Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner have let Putin know that the US administration would be prepared to recognize Moscow's sovereignty over the occupied part of Zaporizhia (including the plant).
This constitutes a radical break with decades of American foreign policy doctrine, which refuses to recognize territories seized by force.
But there seems to be a hidden business motive behind Zaporizhzhia: the construction of an American data center for artificial intelligence in the Russian-controlled area is being studied, supplied with low-cost energy from the power plant itself. For this reason, America today seems ready to bury the principles that it helped create the United Nations 80 years ago. / Adapted from “Corriere Della Sera”
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