FLASH
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A successful spring offensive by the Russians could prove to be the spark that ignites the powder keg. Perhaps the Ukrainian president would be wise to listen to the Pope's suggestion.
Pope Francis has called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to have "the courage of the white flag".
Speaking to Swiss broadcaster RSI, the Pope argued that "the strongest is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people, has the courage of the white flag and negotiates".
While the comments were condemned in some quarters, at this stage they are simply an acknowledgment of the reality of the situation in Ukraine.
Since the country's ill-fated summer counteroffensive last year, it has become increasingly clear that Ukraine is not winning the war, and may never be able to. Big promises were made about this counteroffensive, not least that the Ukrainians would push into Crimea and thus deal a devastating and possibly destabilizing blow to the Kremlin. But none of this happened. As the Ukrainians met the dug-in Russian defense, it quickly disappeared.
The same cannot be said for the Russians. Last month's fall of Avdiivka, a key Ukrainian position thought to have almost impenetrable defenses, provoked Western media to speculate that Russia could turn the tide of the war. There are now widespread rumors that Vladimir Putin may launch a major offensive this spring in an attempt to break the Ukrainian lines.
This is bad news for Zelensky's government, which has become increasingly weak. Media reports last year suggested that Zelensky was embroiled in a feud with the man then in charge of the war effort, the respected General Valerii Zaluzhny, who had become increasingly critical of the president's handling of the war. This came to a head last month when Zelensky fired Zaluzhny. Last week, the former commander became ambassador to the United Kingdom, in a move many suspect was aimed at curbing his potential entry into the political arena.
The economic situation is looking increasingly bleak for Ukraine as well. In early February, the European Union approved another 50 billion euros in aid to the embattled nation, but that's simply not enough money to keep the lights on. The €50 billion offered by the Europeans was supposed to be matched by a similar package from the Americans, but President Joe Biden remains unable to get the aid package through Congress, leaving Ukraine potentially short of cash.
Ukraine's internal situation is still combustible. Zelensky is avoiding domestic political criticism and even the emergence of rival factions that disagree with his handling of the war. Meanwhile, the economic situation may deteriorate further this year. And that's not to mention the growing problems the Ukrainian military is having with recruiting. A successful spring offensive by the Russians could prove to be the spark that ignites the powder keg. Perhaps the Ukrainian president would be wise to heed the Pope's suggestion./ Adapted from UnHerd
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