FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Europe should not rely on the good will of the United States to protect it, because sooner or later it will end in disaster. A disaster that can be called... Donald Trump!
After Super Tuesday, Americans and the world are now virtually assured of another Biden-Trump showdown in November. It is a chilling reminder to Europe that their fate is very closely tied to the whims of American politics.
The rhetorical formula comes from Thierry Breton, the current European Commissioner for Internal Markets: Is Europe doomed to have its fate determined every four years by a handful of American voters?
It has never seemed more accurate than now, with the US primaries effectively now over and voters on the other side of the Atlantic set to replay the 2020 Biden-Trump showdown on November 5.
After spending the last few years either confident or indifferent about the impossibility of a Trump comeback, Europeans now see the possibility, even the probability, of a victory for the Republican candidate. It's playing like a horror movie.
The wake-up call came last month with Donald Trump's provocative speech, abandoning to the Russians those NATO countries that were not paying their share of military budgets. Since then, Trump has not only defeated Nikki Haley, an old-fashioned Republican internationalist, but he's leading in the polls, both nationally and in swing states that will make the difference.
That is why the specter of a new mandate of Donald Trump is beginning to be embedded in the brains of European leaders, traumatized by his first stay in the White House, and whom the election of a European-minded Joe Biden had not only ensured them, but basically put them to sleep.
This concern plays an important role in Emmanuel Macron's change of tone on Ukraine; his passing phrase not ruling out sending military personnel there; and his plea against "cowards" this week in Prague.
But we are far from military intervention, if only because the seeds of division were planted again among the "27" of Europe when this debate started. However, it's a time when US aid to Kiev has already reached a stalemate and Ukraine is going through a rough patch.
A European diplomat predicted this week that, if Trump is elected in November, there is a risk that some EU leaders will discreetly make the trip to try to ingratiate themselves with the president-elect…
However, the shock of a Trump victory would be immense, with Russia emboldened by an inward-looking America and a leadership-deprived Atlantic alliance. The worst is never certain, but we must be prepared for it.
Ukraine thus stands as a testing ground for the ability of Europeans to decide and act together. Not to wage war against Russia but to prevent Ukraine from negotiating a capitulation with Moscow, for which Europe would later pay dearly.
Europe should not rely on the good will of the United States.
This will undoubtedly be a big part of the debate in June's European elections; and will be at the center of major European and transatlantic meetings in the coming months, culminating in NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July, with US elections looming.
It is not a debate about being "for or against the Americans", but about "for or against Europe". Or, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk so bluntly put it last month: " Europe should not rely on the goodwill of States United to protect it, because sooner or later it will end in disaster. A disaster that can be called... Donald Trump .”/ Adapted “Pamphlet” from “WorldCrunch”
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