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Wisconsin, a state in the central part of the United States known for its dairy and beer production, is one of the swing states in the 2024 presidential election.
With a history of very close electoral races, Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes could determine who the next president will be.
The two major parties are investing heavily in Wisconsin, aware of its importance in determining the winner of the election. As candidates make frequent stops in the state, from its largest city, Milwaukee, to smaller towns, Wisconsin voters find themselves at the center of America's democratic process.
Wisconsin is currently one of seven swing states that could determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
This state, located in the central part of the United States, is known for its dairy products and beer consumption culture, as well as for extremely close electoral races.
In the last two elections, the difference between the winner and the loser has been less than 1 percent. Professor Barry Burden explains the characteristics of this state.
"There's something magical about Wisconsin, the demographic characteristics of the groups favoring the two parties balance each other out. When Democrats, for example, gain support from a growing group — like urban voters in Madison — Republicans gain support at equal levels through voters in rural areas, or those who live outside urban centers."
But despite these historically close elections, Democratic candidates have won Wisconsin through 2016.
"2016 was a real shock for Republicans and Democrats. It was a surprise that a Republican candidate won in a state after so many election cycles – since the mid-1980s. The last time a Republican had won in this state was in 1984. This development alerted both parties that something was going on in this state. For Trump, it was rural voters and voters living outside of big cities who supported him and I think the lack of attention from Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. It is a known fact that she did not visit this country," says Professor Burden.
President Joe Biden restored support for Democrats in Wisconsin in the 2020 election.
But Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is not leaving it to chance. She launched her campaign from Milwaukee.
Republicans also held their convention in Wisconsin.
As in other states, the top issue for voters in Wisconsin is the economy. But there is another issue that can be crucial.
"Abortion has become a major issue, perhaps more so than in other parts of the country. When the Supreme Court ruled that it overturned the decision to constitutionally protect abortion (Roe v. Wade), it mattered more in Wisconsin than in other states because up to that point abortion had been legal and available throughout the state. . But during the week when the decision was announced, clinics that offered abortion as a service stopped it, and the issue of abortion is driving some women, especially educated women, away from supporting the Republican Party ," says Mr. Burden.
Professor Burden says an important group to watch is African-Americans.
“African-Americans make up only about 6 percent of the population in this state. They vote at lower rates than white voters, but they are strong Democratic supporters, although less so in recent years. As was the trend at the national level, African-American voters have begun to migrate slightly towards the Republicans, especially young African-American voters."
Expert Burden says that the outcome of the elections in the state of Wisconsin can be influenced by any third candidates.
"Any percentage, however small, that goes to an independent candidate, or a candidate of a small party, can matter. There is a tradition of such candidates doing well in Wisconsin. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate this year, also ran in 2016 and won about 100,000 votes. Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by a margin of about 20,000 votes. So there is evidence that a candidate can get enough votes to influence the overall result."
According to the polls, the Wisconsin election is unpredictable. But one thing can be predicted: high turnout. This state typically ranks among the top five states nationally in terms of voter turnout. / VOA
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