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The European Union is one step away from approving the latest package of sanctions against Moscow, the 18th in a row since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine three years ago.
However, two points remain to be negotiated. The first is the setting of a price ceiling on Russian oil. It is still included in the draft proposals seen by Radio Free Europe, but it remains to be seen whether it will be included in the final draft.
And second, the Slovak veto on a sanctions-related issue, although it is not directly part of the package.
When the European Commission presented the package to EU member states in early June, the main point was the reduction of the ceiling price, from the current figure of 60 US dollars per barrel, to 45 dollars.
Since this policy belongs to the group of seven most industrialized countries (G7), the EU has attempted to secure support from the G7 countries, especially the United States, at a summit held last month in Canada, but has failed to get the American vote, especially after the increase in oil prices, as a result of Israeli and American attacks against Iran.
However, Brussels decided to move forward with the initiative, especially given the fact that the price ceiling on Russian oil was initially an opportunity for the EU to impose a ban on Russian oil transportation services.
In recent discussions in Brussels, several European officials said on condition of anonymity that Cyprus, Greece and Malta – all countries with significant maritime services – are against lowering the ceiling price.
However, there are some voices saying that these countries may soften their stances, especially since the United Kingdom, another country with numerous maritime services, is in line with Brussels for price reductions.
Diplomats believe the United States will join Brussels and London if they both fully agree on the points of the deal. The biggest challenge is Malta, although some hope Valletta can even agree if the ceiling price does not fall below $45 per barrel.
Then comes the Slovak veto. Bratislava has set conditions for the vote on more sanctions, demanding that a European Commission proposal to end Russian energy imports into the European bloc by the end of 2027 be reconsidered.
The proposal, made public in May, is called “Reinforce the EU” and has sparked concern in Slovakia and Hungary, with the latter seemingly tacitly supporting its northern neighbor.
And it's easy to see why. Since 2022, the European Union has restricted the purchase of Russian energy through sanctions, such as banning most oil and coal imports.
But sanctions require unanimity among the 27 member states. Hungary and Slovakia have used their veto several times in recent years when Brussels has presented tougher proposals that would target the Russian energy sector.
Therefore, the European Commission is attempting, through the "Reinforce the EU" initiative, to regulate the EU's internal market with a host of measures, most of which can be adopted by a qualified majority of 55 percent of member states representing 65 percent of the entire EU population.
In other words, they avoid both Bratislava and Budapest.
The main proposal will be a legal requirement to impose a moratorium on all new contracts for Russian gas as well as short-term contracts for liquefied natural gas until at least the end of the year.
For long-term contracts, the regulations will suggest a gradual disengagement period until the end of 2027.
Russian gas imports to the EU have fallen from 45 percent in 2021 to 19 percent in 2024 and are expected to decrease to 13 percent in 2025, with the Ukrainian transit blockade earlier this year.
However, the EU has been embarrassed that imports of liquefied natural gas increased by 12 percent last year, compared to 2023.
In oil imports, the situation is less dramatic, but very specific in geographical terms and sensitive in political terms.
Russian oil imports account for only 3 percent of all oil imported into the EU, compared to 27 percent in 2022, mainly due to sanctions.
However, it should be noted that some Central European countries have been exempted from some of the sanctions. Although the Czech Republic has stopped imports from this source, Hungary and Slovakia still import 80 percent of their total oil from Russia.
The European Commission will require an end to Russian oil imports by the end of 2027 and the parties must provide a strategy on how they plan to achieve this goal.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico signaled at the EU summit, held in Brussels on June 26, that he will not give the green light to the sanctions package, and that he needs more clarification on the "Reinforce the EU" initiative.
According to diplomats close to these developments, Bratislava is not seeking many exemptions, but rather legal certainty regarding future contracts with Gazprom.
Last week, European Commission officials visited Bratislava to meet with Slovak officials and representatives of energy companies.
Although according to EU diplomats, the meetings have gone "well", it seems that Fico is not entirely convinced.
EU ambassadors, meeting in Brussels on July 4 to discuss sanctions, learned that the document is not fully ready for approval.
In the press release issued by the Slovak Ministry of Economy, following the visit of European Commission officials, the need for more discussions in the coming days was signaled.
Minister Denisa Sakova said that "the meeting in Bratislava is an important step towards finding a solution, taking into account the specific factors of each member state when it comes to diversifying sources and guaranteeing affordable energy prices for Slovak industry, which is facing increasing costs."
In the end, it was said that Slovakia is ready to continue "the constructive approach to the proposed measures and will continue discussions with experts, with the involvement of all interested parties."/ REL
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