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In recent weeks, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have discussed possible frameworks for a ceasefire. One option aims to protect energy infrastructure, such as power plants and transmission lines, and another focuses on reducing military activity in the Black Sea.
One of Moscow's main demands has been made public: sanctions relief. In a Kremlin statement issued after the Black Sea ceasefire agreement on March 25, Moscow said it would respect the agreement only if the West partially lifted sanctions imposed after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago.
This demand includes the lifting of restrictions on fertilizer exports and the insurance companies that cover them, as well as access for some Russian banks to the global SWIFT payment system.
Several European Union leaders have already rejected Moscow's demand, notably during a March 27 meeting in Paris, where senior officials from more than 30 countries gathered to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
In conversations with Radio Free Europe, European diplomats have pointed out that the White House statement issued that day made no mention of sanctions relief.
Referring to recent ceasefire talks in Riyadh, an EU ambassador told REL that "no agreement was reached on this in Saudi Arabia, so there is nothing for us to decide."
The Europeans were not present at the ceasefire talks, but they have a major influence on sanctions against Russia.
First, SWIFT is a Belgian company and the EU has excluded 23 Russian banks so far, including financial giants like Sberbank and Bank Otkritie.
They are also aware that Russia's trade relations with Europe are much deeper than with the United States.
Even before the full-scale invasion, US exports to Russia accounted for less than 0.5 percent of total US exports worldwide. For the EU, the figure was six percent, which translates to 250 billion euros.
When the EU imposed sanctions, the impact on Moscow was huge. According to estimates by David O'Sullivan, the official responsible for EU sanctions, the restrictive measures have deprived Russia of more than 450 billion euros in revenue since the beginning of 2022.
Is the EU considering easing, even partially, sanctions on Russia?
The answer that REL has heard repeatedly is a simple “no” or “we will reject this.”
Officials point to Russia's continued drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, as well as the conclusions of the last EU meeting, which signaled a possibility of increasing sanctions, not easing them.
As stated in the main results of the March 20 European Council Summit on Ukraine, “The European Union remains ready to increase pressure on Russia, including through further sanctions measures and strengthening the implementation of existing measures.”
The European Commission has not yet invited member states to so-called "sanctions confession sessions" to discuss a new sanctions package - which would be the 17th in three years - but is considering closing legal loopholes that allow sanctions evasion.
The conclusions of the European Council meeting on March 20 were approved by 26 of the 27 EU member states. Which country disagreed? Hungary, which has long been critical of EU sanctions.
This is important for one reason: Lifting EU sanctions in certain areas requires unanimity, and that simply doesn't exist at the moment. As mentioned earlier, many member states are calling for more sanctions, not less.
But here's the challenge: Every six months, in January and July, the entire sanctions package must be extended, and that also requires unanimous approval.
This is where Hungary, and perhaps other countries, could step in to begin easing sanctions. In January, Budapest threatened to block the renewal of sanctions and gave the green light only after receiving written assurances that Russian oil would continue to flow to Hungary.
EU diplomats RFE/RL spoke with are already fearful about what could happen with the extension of sanctions in July, and the concessions they may be forced to make to secure their full approval.
The regular EU summit at the end of June is expected to include intensive negotiations on the issue, with Hungary aiming to get more frozen EU funds for itself, while some member states are eager to launch Ukraine's EU accession talks by the summer - a step that Budapest has so far blocked.
Allowing some Russian banks to return to SWIFT and lifting the ban on Russian garbage might be the easiest options in this regard. But, of course, everything will depend on the situation on the ground in Ukraine at that time.
One thing is clear, however: Despite immediate rejections from European diplomats, Moscow has planted a seed.
As one European diplomat told REL, “I believe this is a clever method that the Russians have started. They are inserting broad demands into the ceasefire talks that, in fact, belong to a full discussion of peace. This time we should be the ones who are ‘transactional’ and give this powerful tool only for a fair price.”
So what might this fair price be? In a way, European officials will ask Kiev to provide the answer.
But, according to sources REL spoke to, the possibilities include a limited easing of sanctions in exchange for a freeze on front lines, non-recognition of occupied territories as Russian, and continued Western military supplies to Ukraine, with the option of reinstating sanctions in the event of violations.
The question is whether Brussels and Kiev can convince Moscow to accept such an agreement and what Washington will think of it./ REL
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