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Shkruar nga Pierre Haski*
The Europeans are preparing their plan to "pacify" Ukraine after a peace deal that never materialized. Their goal is above all to convince Donald Trump to impose sanctions on Moscow and help Ukraine. But this means increasing the continent's dependence on the United States.
The Europeans are pretending… And they’re doing it well. The Readiness Coalition meeting on Thursday in Paris brings together most European Union member states, the United Kingdom, and some non-European countries like Canada and Japan. This informal alliance is meeting to draw up a plan for the security guarantees it can offer Ukraine once the fighting has stopped.
Besides… The war is not going to end anytime soon, as events have amply demonstrated since the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska last month, which failed to produce any real progress.
The challenge for the Coalition of the Willing is not to prepare for a peace that will not come; it is to convince one man: Donald Trump. This reflects Europe’s dependence on the United States for some of its military equipment and, more generally, for its security. Europe is prepared to make many concessions to keep the United States on its side, even with an unpredictable and transactional president like Trump.
Trump at a critical point
The US president has shifted his stances multiple times over the past six months, both on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and on Europe and Russia. He now finds himself at a critical juncture.
Trump wanted a rapprochement with Vladimir Putin at all costs. But the price to be paid was too high. The images of the Russian president at yesterday's military parade in Beijing certainly did not please him: We hope he has understood that he will not succeed in separating Putin from Xi Jinping's China.
Yet the war in Ukraine remains, and that’s where the Coalition of the Willing comes in. The Europeans have managed to get back into the loop of a discussion that was initially taking place without them. They are acting as Ukraine’s advocates, calling for renewed U.S. involvement, even if it means paying for the weapons being delivered to Kiev.
Russian aggression
The Europeans want to show the Americans that they are serious about their commitment to provide their share of security guarantees to Ukraine after a peace deal. Thousands of European soldiers will be deployed to the country as a "backstop" force, under the plan discussed Thursday in Paris.
But the Europeans are asking Trump for two things: that he commit, as they do, to a “solidarity clause” with Ukraine in the event of further Russian aggression; and that he reject any limits on the size of Ukraine’s military in the peace deal, which Russia is demanding.
Everything is connected, and Trump knows this well, giving nothing away for free.
Trump suggested on Wednesday that if Putin continues to refuse to meet with Zelensky unconditionally, “you’re going to see things happen,” without giving further details. Europeans hope that will mean tougher sanctions against Moscow and increased arms shipments to Ukraine.
The disadvantages of this hope for help from the US are that Europe would increase, rather than reduce, its dependence on the United States, which is imposing its hand on trade issues and seeking to dictate its digital policy. Everything is connected and Trump knows this well, giving nothing away for free. This is the trap of European weakness and it will not go away. / Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “WorldCrunch”
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