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The report highlights that the world is entering a period where temperature changes will be consistently noticeable at every latitude.
Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, confirming a warming trend that has already been widely documented by the international scientific community, according to a report titled “Global Annual-to-Decadal Update,” published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and compiled by specialists at the Met Office.
The report highlights that we are entering a period during which temperature changes will be consistently significant at all latitudes. Projections clearly show that between 2026 and 2030, average annual surface temperatures will be 1.3°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 average.
The document analyzes the evolution of the observed climate, providing accurate forecasts at the global and regional levels, as well as essential support for meteorological centers around the world.
Possibility of exceeding reference limits
The WMO report presents very clear percentages regarding estimates for the next five years. There is an 86% probability that a year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
The WMO document also states that there is an extremely high probability, around 91%, that the global average surface temperature will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels for at least one year during this period. This threshold was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the deviation reached 1.55°C.
The calculations also show a 75% probability that the full five-year average will exceed the 1.5°C limit. However, it is considered extremely unlikely, with a probability of less than 1%, that a single year will exceed 2°C of warming by 2030.
In relation to these data, the WMO clarifies a crucial point to avoid misinterpretations regarding the Paris Agreement: the 1.5°C and 2°C levels refer to long-term warming that lasts for about 20 years. Consequently, the report clarifies that exceedances in individual years “do not imply that the long-term temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement are unattainable,” as such fluctuations are expected to become increasingly frequent as the maximum levels approach.
The return of the El Nino phenomenon
The forecast for the Central Tropical Pacific shows a clear trend towards El Niño conditions, with a peak expected mainly during 2027 and 2028.
Referring to this dynamic, Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, stated: "There is a forecast for El Nino in late 2026, which increases the possibility that the following year, 2027, will be a new record year."
These projections, considered particularly reliable since retrospective models have shown considerable accuracy, are the result of careful data processing. The data come from contributions from 13 different international research institutes, including four World Production Centres: the Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and the Met Office itself.
Impacts on the Arctic and precipitation
The "Global Annual-to-Decadal Update" also pays special attention to the polar regions, as well as changes in precipitation, describing a scenario consistent with overall global warming.
Temperature anomalies in the Arctic will continue to be higher than the global average. Specifically, for the next five extended winters in the Northern Hemisphere, from November to March, experts estimate that temperatures in the Arctic will be 2.8°C higher than the average for the period 1991-2020. This anomaly is more than three and a half times higher than the global average calculated for the same period.
Estimates also show further decreases in sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
In terms of precipitation, the forecasts favor moderately wetter conditions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming winters. In contrast, precipitation is expected to decrease in subtropical regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.
For the May-September period of 2026-2030, the document estimates that wet anomalies will be more likely in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while the Amazon region is expected to face dry anomalies.
Finally, the WMO update includes a specific reference to Southern and Eastern Europe: after recent exceptionally dry years, forecasts show that the period 2026-2030 will be characterized by more abundant precipitation.
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