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The question is whether the West will have the strength and stamina to continue to oppose Putin and all he stands for.
The conflict in Ukraine is entering its third year. The front lines have barely moved in recent months, but according to some analysts, the tide of the war could change in 2024. Ukrainian President Vladomir Zelensky admitted that his country's spring offensive was not as successful as he had hoped. Russia still controls about 18 percent of Ukraine, and here's what the war could look like in the next 12 months.
As the BBC writes, Barbara Zanketa from the University of London said that the prospects for ending the war are still controversial. This time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, more politically than militarily.
The situation on the battlefield is still unclear. Lately the Ukrainian winter offensive seems to have stopped, but neither has the Russian penetration. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions in Washington and Brussels.
The impressive demonstration of unity that the West showed in 2022 and that lasted until 2023 seems to be on shaky ground. This reluctance in the West only emboldened Putin.
According to the analyst, the question is whether the West will have the strength and stamina to continue opposing Putin and all he stands for.
The EU's decision to open membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova is a positive step. This implicitly means continued support for Kiev, because Ukraine's future in the EU would be impossible with a Russian victory, but in Washington there is little chance of policy change.
Although it is likely that the war will also mark the year 2024, it still cannot last indefinitely, according to Zanketa.
With Western reluctance encouraging Russia, and absent a coup or a health problem that would lead to Putin's death, the only foreseeable outcome of the war will be a negotiated settlement that, for now, both sides continue to refuse.
Year of consolidation
The former director general of the "Royal United Services Institute", Michael Clarke, says that the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to the return of the great war to the European continent. The progress of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that a form of war from the industrial age has already returned, a war that affects the country's economy.
Russia's defense budget has tripled since 2021 and will account for 30 percent of state spending next year. This will make the war in Ukraine a longer and more traumatic enterprise than anything that has happened in Europe since the middle of the last century. The coming year will show whether Russia and its allies in North Korea and Iran, or Ukraine and its Western allies, are able and ready to meet the harsh demands of industrial age warfare.
Russian forces may again try to cross the entire front, at least to secure the entire Donbass region. Ukraine is likely to try to capitalize on the success it has achieved in regaining control over the western Black Sea and the vital trade corridor to the Bosphorus. And Kiev will probably try to cause more military surprises for the Russian invaders.
But Clark believes 2024 looks like a year of consolidation for both Kiev and Moscow.
Russia lacks the equipment and trained military to launch a strategic offensive until the spring of 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine needs financial and military support from the West to see the war through next year.
The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kiev, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiyevka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the front line.
Pressure around Crimea
The former commander of the United States military in Europe, Ben Hodges, says that Russia lacks the ability to destroy Ukraine and will do anything to keep what it has won. However, he believes that Ukraine will not stop, it is fighting for its survival.
"I expect that at the beginning of the new year, the US will rediscover its strategic pillar and pass the aid package that was delayed in Congress in December. Therefore, I expect that Ukraine will rebuild the units that have been exhausted by months of fighting, improve the recruitment system and increase the production of ammunition and weapons," he says.
From early summer, Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which Ukraine hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian jets and strengthen its air defenses.
The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains under Russian occupation is Crimea, which is a "big bite".
Ukraine will do everything it can to keep the pressure on the Russians there to make it unsustainable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, several air bases there and their logistics base in Dzhankoy. / BBC
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