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It is very likely that the next race for the presidential elections in the USA will be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with real chances for Trump to enter the White House again. Germany and the EU must prepare this time.
The former American president, Donald Trump, won the primary elections among the Republicans in New Hampshire for the candidate they will send to the presidential race. This increases the likelihood that in the upcoming presidential elections in November, the current president, Joe Biden, will face former president Trump, as in 2020. Not only the polls signal that Donald Trump has a real chance to return to the White House. The well-known New York Times reports that after talks with politicians and business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, it concluded that the world elites are currently counting on a Trump victory. For many in Europe, a scary scenario.
The more realistic Donald Trump's victory seems, the more warning the EU leaders' statements are becoming. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, in an interview with France 1 television, sees a second Trump victory as a "clear threat" for Europe. And the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo recently warned in a speech at the European Parliament. "If 2024 brings 'America First', Europe will more than ever have to rely on itself." The former Swedish Prime Minister, Carl Bildt, in a document of the institute, European Council on Foreign Relations, ECFR, calculates with global consequences in the event of the re-election of Donald Trump.
"The US would abandon climate policy and expand investment in fossil fuels. NATO at best would be inactive. There would be comfortable Trump meetings with friends of Putin and Orban. Trade wars would intensify."
Strengthen military capabilities and the economy
The question is how to prepare for a possible Trump 2.0 scenario.? The director of the German Marshall Fund's Berlin office, Sudha David-Wilp, mentions military skills as a priority. "Europe must become a powerful actor, militarily, in the conventional sense, and must be able to take care of security issues in its immediate neighborhood on its own." The German Marshall Funds is supported by both the US government, the German government and the EU. According to the expert, Europe must be strengthened economically to be prepared for possible protectionist measures of a second Trump administration.
Jürgen Hardt, the spokesman for foreign affairs of the parliamentary group, CDU/CSU, is of the opinion that Germany is not well prepared for a second term of Trump. "We have done very little in the last three years to help Joe Biden show that Biden's cooperative style with Europe is more successful than Trump's confrontational style. We have neither tried to find a common strategy for China, nor have we followed through on our defense spending promises. Here the situation changed only after the start of the war in Ukraine."
It is precisely in connection with Ukraine that there is a great fear, if Trump wins. Contradictory tones are heard from him. The spectrum is wide: from the promise that he, as president of the United States, will end the war in Ukraine within a day; to the threat that he will completely stop aid to Ukraine; and announcements that he will give Kiev more than he has ever received.
Sudha David-Wilp is cooler and recalls cross-party support for Ukraine in the US, even as enthusiasm for Ukraine has waned among Republicans. But she warns: "Regardless of who wins in November, I believe most Americans are of the opinion that Europe should bear a larger share of the burden when it comes to military aid and reconstruction of Ukraine, because the country is in the European continent."
The relationship with NATO
Concern about Trump's relationship with NATO has also increased in European capitals. During his first term, Trump was barely persuaded not to abandon the defense alliance. The Commissioner for the Internal Market of the EU, Thierry Breton, added to the uncertainty, when he told this anecdote before the European Parliament: According to him, Trump, as American president in 2020, said in a conversation to the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that "if Europe is attacked, we will never come to help and support them". Trump never provided complete security in four years. In January, Trump said in relation to the question of whether, in case of victory, he would support NATO allies militarily, that "it depends, if they treat us properly. Look at it this way: NATO has exploited our country. European countries have benefited from this.”
For the expert on transatlantic relations, Josef Braml, this fits the current attitude. "Trump sees Europe as an enemy. "they are worse than the Chinese", is his original statement. In this new world order, there is only one chance: Europe must emerge as a united factor!" But how can this unity be achieved in the European choir with special interests? "Now it is necessary to think on a large scale, in Europe joint debts must be taken, certain states must be financially supported and conditions must be set for them", emphasizes Braml.
Is Europe's nuclear shield at risk?
For Braml, the common European debts have another advantage: "With the money from the common debt fund, we can strengthen the common defense. We currently pay tribute to the Americans. For example, we buy American F35 fighter jets from the USA in order to have even more parts in the nuclear shield. But what is the value of the nuclear shield, if Trump re-enters the White House? We must prepare now and together with France and Poland agree on expanded military and economic cooperation, which also includes other European countries."
But CDU politician Hardt sees as unrealistic the scenario that Trump gives up nuclear protection for Europe. Nobody wants a nuclear race. For Hardt, the atomic weapons of France and Great Britain are insufficient. According to Hardt, at the end of the day we will have to contribute a large financial measure to the common nuclear defense.
In the end, only one thing is known: Donald Trump's re-election would be a stress test not only for transatlantic relations, but also for unity within Europe./DW
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