FLASH
Shkruar nga Simon Tisdall
This conflict is not limited, as was the case last year, to retaliation exchanges and "precision strikes" against a narrow range of military targets.
What happened was not inevitable. This is a war that Israel chose. It could have been prevented. Diplomatic talks were underway when the bombers headed for Iran. Israel’s continued, illegal, and unjustified airstrikes are unlikely to achieve their stated goal—to permanently end Tehran’s alleged efforts to build nuclear weapons—and may even accelerate it. They must stop now. Likewise, Iran must immediately halt its retaliation and abandon its escalating threats to attack American and British bases.
This conflict is not limited, as was the case last year, to just retaliation exchanges and “precision strikes” on a narrow range of military targets. It has reached an entirely different level. Potentially, nothing is off the table. Civilians are being killed on both sides. Leaders are being targeted. The rhetoric is out of control. With Israel fighting on multiple fronts and Iran’s crumbling regime backed up against a wall, the Middle East is closer than ever to a catastrophic conflagration.
Reasons for going to war can always be found. The roots of major conflicts often go back decades - and this is true of the Israel-Iran feud, which dates back to the 1979 Islamic revolution. The so-called "shadow war" between the two has intensified in recent years. However, full-scale conflict has been avoided until now. So who is largely to blame for this sudden and unprecedented outbreak?
The answer: three angry old men whose behavior raises serious doubts about their judgment, common sense, motives, and even their mental health.
The fact that one of them - Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister - has been actively seeking a confrontation with Iran for years does not mean that it had to happen. The fact that the Tehran regime is extremely vulnerable after Israel's attacks last year and the defeat of its Hezbollah ally does not in any way legitimize a surprise attack on its sovereign soil. It is true that UN nuclear inspectors say that Iran is violating its treaty obligations. But that does not constitute a green light for war.
Netanyahu, 75, is unfit to lead Israel, let alone make life-and-death decisions on its behalf. He failed to protect Israelis from terrorist attacks in 2023, then shied away from responsibility. He has failed to fulfill his promise to destroy Hamas and return the hostages, yet his soldiers have killed more than 55,000 Palestinians in Gaza in the process. He invaded Lebanon and Syria. Now it’s Iran. Where will he stop? Will he fight Turkey next? It’s not out of the question.
War is Netanyahu’s choice. It’s what gets him out of bed in the morning. It’s what keeps him and his far-right friends, sanctioned by the UK, in office and out of prison. His actions have caused immense damage to his country’s reputation, fuelling anti-Semitism globally. He claims Israel is fighting for its existence – but his political survival is also a major consideration. Netanyahu has been indicted for alleged war crimes in Gaza. He should be arrested, not protected and enabled, before more crimes are committed.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s martial supreme leader, is the second main culprit. He should have been exiled to Qom years ago. The 86-year-old presides over an oppressive and corrupt theocratic regime that has lost touch with society and the people it supposedly serves. Elections are rigged, judges are unruly, media censorship is widespread. The regime’s military incompetence, economic mismanagement, and brutal persecution of young women, gay men, and human rights defenders like Nasrin Sotoudeh are notorious.
Like Netanyahu, Khamenei is supported by hard-line conservatives and opposed by reformists, but he is the one who makes the decisions. His dubious insistence on increasing uranium enrichment, despite the lack of civilian applications, ultimately gave Netanyahu an opening. Although he is said to be ill, Khamenei is a major reason why Iran will not abandon its nuclear program. Even without him, Netanyahu’s idea that it can be completely eliminated is a fantasy.
This blind spot could be the regime’s ultimate downfall. Israeli strikes have killed top military leaders and damaged nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, and drone forces. Khamenei himself and Iran’s vital energy exports could be next. In a paternalistic video, Netanyahu urged Iranians to rise up and seize their “freedom.” Many would like to do so. The trouble with such advice, coming from a tainted source, is that it could have the opposite effect of rallying the public and Arab leaders around the regime.
Iran's threats to attack American, British, and French bases and ships if they help defend Israel, as well as to close the Strait of Hormuz, raise the risk of a full-scale war and a global energy shock that could hurt the West and benefit Russia. These are some of the direct consequences of Donald Trump's weak and wavering stance.
Trump, 79, is the third person in this avoidable tragedy. He previously said he would prefer to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran, foolishly scuttling the previous one. But he couldn’t decide on the terms, and his amateur negotiators kept changing their minds. That’s partly because Trump, as with Palestine and Ukraine, is too lazy to study the details. Instead, he sidesteps them, relying on instincts that are always bad. That makes him easy prey for cunning operators like Netanyahu.
Trump’s weak incompetence meant that when the Israeli leader insisted last week that the time had come for a full-scale attack on Iran, he backed down. Usually, once the attack began, he would switch positions, trying to take credit and issuing unbearable threats. Every time he opens his mouth, Trump inadvertently confirms Iran’s suspicions that the US and Israel are acting in close cooperation.
An urgent message to Keir Starmer: anyone who still thinks Trump has the faintest idea what he is doing when it comes to the big international issues of the day should study the alarming events of the past week. Whether he is selling out to Vladimir Putin, weaponizing tariffs, breaking the Gaza ceasefire or bullying his neighbours, Trump is an all-out menace. Far better and safer for Britain to ignore him and try as much as possible to act independently of the US from now on. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "The Guardian"
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